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DISCUSSION
 
D:1RP ( 5508.02 points)April 25, 2024 09:45am
The Conservatives have said they will hold a vote of no confidence in First Minister Humza Yousaf.

Wouldn't the success of that trigger new elections? Would the Scottish Conservatives not almost certainly lose seats in the current environment?
 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points)April 25, 2024 10:22am
They may lose some, but the Conservative target seats are all held by the SNP. They may hope the SNP drops more than they will drop, plus anything to dent the nationalists (even if it doesn't directly benefit them) might be worth it.

Most recent polling shows the Tory constituency vote in Scotland in the high teens; in 2021, it was just under 22%. Compare that with the SNP, whose constituency vote has dropped from close to 48% to now being in the mid thirties according to polls.
 
D:1RP ( 5508.02 points)April 25, 2024 10:25am
Interesting. What target seats might the Conservatives pick up?
 
Un:352Ralphie ( 15115.82 points)April 25, 2024 10:37am
They ran a strong second in a lot of the rural northern seats, though would have to convince those disillusioned with the SNP that they can dislodge them or that vote might go back into the Lib Dem fold like before the nats came to power.
 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points)April 25, 2024 11:33am
Yeah, mainly seats in the Northeast around Moray and Aberdeenshire.

It's an interesting dynamic, though, with the additional member system. Because the SNP cleans up in constituencies (62 of 73), they barely get any seats in the regional vote (2 of 56) since the regional vote is supposed to balance things out. If the SNP loses constituencies, they might pick up a seat or two on the regional lists.
 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4113.60 points)April 25, 2024 12:51pm