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Here's the new map. | |||||||||||||||||
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NYDem Junior: I see a path to 18 for the GOP. I don't see anything beyond that. The path to 18 are their current 16 seats plus 4/16. I no longer think 16 and 38 are winnable for the GOP. Plus when you consider that 16 got marginally better for dems, i can't understand why dems are complaining. BTW, any chance George Giest makes a comeback in 4? He's not that old.
16 shifted a few points to the right so its still competitive in the right cycle with the right candidates. Personally I think the GOP can flip 4, 11, and 16 if 2023 is the right cycle. They can run a good race in 38 but 14 seems to big of a dream. So the highest the GOP could attain is 19 seats if 2022 actually ends up being a red wave and if Biden's numbers go any lower. As for who those republicans could be, I think George Giest would be a very strong candidate in 4. There have already been rumors that he would make a comeback. The GOP could also run Nick Desilvio for the seat. He is currently a Gloucester County Commissioner and could boost the numbers the GOP needs out of that county, but they could put him on the Assembly ticket and he would still be very helpful electorally. They should also recruit a minority, the district has a notable african american and hispanic population in Winslow and Gloucester Twp. As for the 11th and 16th districts the GOP is going to struggle to find candidates. Tom Arnone is no longer in the 11th and I personally think he would have beaten Vin Gopal had he run in 2021. The 16th district would probably pick a republican from Hillsborough that would be able to turn out voters from the districts biggest Somerset County municipality. | |||||||||||||||||
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District 1- For Dems, a candidate from Vineland, Millville, or Bridgeton are the best choices. District 2- For Dems, an official at the County level or from AC District 3- For Dems, Sweeney, or Burzichelli District 4- For Dems, Fred Madden. For Republicans either George Geist, an elected official from a large town, or a republican lawyer of businessperson from Camden Co. District 8- For Dems, Any elected official from a large town District 11- For Republicans, Marilyn Piperno District 14- Republican businessperson or lawyer from Hamilton District 16- Republican lawyer, businessperson, or elected official from Hillsborough District 21- Democratic elected official from Summit or Westfield District 36- Longshot for GOP.... but Lawyer businessperson, or elected official from larger town District 38- Republican from Paramus
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Don't see Dems winning District 1. I live in Hillsborough, and doubt Republicans can win LD16 - yeah, there are popular Republicans in here, but nobody knows who they are outside Hillsborough. Ask anyone in Flemington or Montgomery or South Brunswick who Doug Tomson is and they'll say "who?" Btw how do you vote on the poll? | ||||||||||||||||||
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As for the Hillsborough thing, I agree, but you have to keep in mind most people don't know who state legislative candidates are. | |||||||||||||||||
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WSNJ: Early best candidates for each party in each competitive district.
District 1- For Dems, a candidate from Vineland, Millville, or Bridgeton are the best choices. District 2- For Dems, an official at the County level or from AC District 3- For Dems, Sweeney, or Burzichelli District 4- For Dems, Fred Madden. For Republicans either George Geist, an elected official from a large town, or a republican lawyer of businessperson from Camden Co. District 8- For Dems, Any elected official from a large town District 11- For Republicans, Marilyn Piperno District 14- Republican businessperson or lawyer from Hamilton District 16- Republican lawyer, businessperson, or elected official from Hillsborough District 21- Democratic elected official from Summit or Westfield District 36- Longshot for GOP.... but Lawyer businessperson, or elected official from larger town District 38- Republican from Paramus I originally voted "No, Democrats hold" in this poll, and while I think this is probably still the safe bet, after looking at the 2023 state legislative districts I see a few instances of towns in Central and North NJ that have been trending Democratic in the past couple decades that were previously in Democratic-held legislative districts, but this time around have been put in districts where Republicans seem to otherwise have an edge. However, I don't see reverse shifts elsewhere, though this could be the limits of my knowledge as much as anything else. So while Democrats will *probably* still hold the state legislature, I can definitely see Republicans making gains | |||||||||||||||||
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As for why 3 flipped, it’s because it’s a Trump district that just fell victim to an unexpected red wave. | |||||||||||||||||
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NYDem Junior: WSNJ: So you must believe that Fred Madden is running for re-election?
He definitely their best candidate, but it looks to me like he's not running again. Unless he switches parties... | |||||||||||||||||
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NYDem Junior: Would George Norcross be okay with Madden flipping parties? He might, because he was fine with Van Drew flipping, but i'm not sure if he'd be okay with it at the state level.
I doubt he'd be okay with it but Norcross just isn't what he once was and you also have to figure why Madden hasn't even announced anything yet. Is it because Democrats can't find a replacement? Is it because they are doing it out of respect for Madden's eventual decision. But for one of the states most competitive districts neither side seems to really care all that much. | |||||||||||||||||
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8th District: 1 term incumbent retiring 9th District: Bloody Assembly primary 10th District: Bloody Assembly primary/incumbent retiring 4th District: No candidate for Sen. or Asm. 11th District: 5th choice is presumptive nominee sitting Assemblywomen alienating party by donating to local Democrats 14th District: Senate Candidate from neighboring district, Assembly candidates that have lost elections 16th District: Twinkle Twinkle Kenneth Starr 38th District: No candidate for Senate/half decent slate for Assembly 3rd District: Bloody primary between incumbents 12th District: Senator Switched Parties 24th District: Minority Leader randomly retires two weeks after announcing re-election bid causing a bloody primary 26th District: Bloody primary 30th District: Lakewood related Disaster avoided 39th District: Bloody primary brewing for Senate plus a potential Todd Caliguire disaster Wtf is happening | |||||||||||||||||
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Re-elect Polistina: 100% do able Re-elect Durr/Ostrum: 100% do able Beat Madden: 100% do able Elect Tiver: 100% do able Beat Gopal: 100% do able Elect Henry: More than likely Beat Greenstein: Not happening Beat Zwicker: Maybe (not) Re-elect Bramnick: 100% do able Beat Lagana: With whom you may ask. Idk. And I don't think the GOP knows either Democrats path to a majority. Beat Polistina: 100% do able Beat Durr/Ostrum: 100% do able Beat DeSilvio: 100% do able Beat Tiver: Possible Re-elect Gopal: 100% do able Beat Henry: Not happening Re-elect Greenstein: More than likely Re-elect Zwicker: More than likely Beat Bramnick: 100% do able Re-elect Lagana: So far hes unopposed. The fact of the matter is the GOP can't get their sh*t together. And even worse for them their recruits stink. | |||||||||||||||||
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The guy recruited in NJ04 is okay a well. I don't really think NJ14 and NJ38 are anything more than reaches. I'm also not sure who could defeat Zwicker outside of Bateman making a comeback. | |||||||||||||||||
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Ld 02 - +4.68 R Ld 03* - +14.49 R Ld 04* - +15.5 R Ld 11* - +3.35 R Ld 16 - +1.70 R Ld 21 - +6.68 R Ld 25 - +4.73 D Ld 38 - -3.27 I, -2.47 D, -3.68 R Ld 39 - +3.79 D * Districts expected to be hotly contested this year. | |||||||||||||||||
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WSNJ: Voter Reg. changes in competitive districts.
Ld 02 - +4.68 R Ld 03* - +14.49 R Ld 04* - +15.5 R Ld 11* - +3.35 R Ld 16 - +1.70 R Ld 21 - +6.68 R Ld 25 - +4.73 D Ld 38 - -3.27 I, -2.47 D, -3.68 R Ld 39 - +3.79 D * Districts expected to be hotly contested this year. Change since Jan. 1 2022 | |||||||||||||||||
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NJEA releases more endorsements. Huge blow to Atlantic County Dems. | |||||||||||||||||
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