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Shows NJ has posted election results as far back 1925. You might also try official journals of the state houses. In Colorado they publish the certified election results on the first day of the opening session. Its a reliable source of results for the selected chamber. | |||||||||||||||||
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BrentinCO: [Link]
Shows NJ has posted election results as far back 1925. Thanks, I had the NJ link, my next place is finding a way to view Fitzgerald's Manual (NJ's Legislative journal) You might also try official journals of the state houses. In Colorado they publish the certified election results on the first day of the opening session. Its a reliable source of results for the selected chamber. | |||||||||||||||||
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Feel free to discuss the candidates and races. I'd love to see interaction on the races this year. Every last one will be interesting and worth watching. Remember if you've seen one town in New Jersey, you've seen one town! Also I'll try and keep each candidate and race up to date as much as I can. | |||||||||||||||||
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BrentinCO: What races are the ones to watch?
When it comes to primaries look at the LD2 GOP, LD16 GOP, LD24 GOP, LD20 dem, LD37 dem. All feature contests representing the continuing struggle between factions in both major political parties. For the general look at 2,8,16,and 21. | |||||||||||||||||
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Safe GOP- 9, 10, 23, 24, 30 Strong GOP- 1, 12, 13, 26, 40 Lean GOP- 25, 39 Slight GOP- 8(flip), 21 Safe Dem- 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 27, 28, 29, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 Strong Dem- 16(flip), 38 Lean Dem- 11 Slight Dem- None Tossup- 2 | |||||||||||||||||
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I was thinking about the 2011 redistricting and I looked back at the map proposed by republicans. I wonder if their map was actually adopted what the numbers would be right now. Without the actual numbers in front of me my guess is that there would be 14 following the 2017 election. Personally I like the democrat map (the one that was adopted) much better. But as we look into the redistrict in 2023 republicans must have learned their lessons following the 2011 map. They played to many cards they didn't have. Chris Christie took to much of an active roll thus tainting the GOP map. The republicans threw way to many incumbent democrats into the same district in order for the map to be worth considering by the tie breaker. And they actually gunned for a majority in both chambers following the 2011 elections. So what should both parties do this time? For starters democrats need to be careful. With progressive groups involved and active like ever before they need to make sure that they don't create to many south jersey based districts. Democrats are also going to struggle to make the case to a tie breaker that they need MORE seats. Their best bet is making a handful of competitive districts. This would create a map that would give them 21 seats in a worst case scenario for their party. The best bet for the GOP is to make a modest map. Keep South Jersey like it is while shifting some more conservative areas into LD 8, and 16. They might want to make LD 11, LD 14, and LD 38 more competitive so the map is appealing to a tie breaker. Feel free to discuss or ask questions! | |||||||||||||||||
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LD 1 - Democrats could have caused some real headaches for incumbent Mike Testa and the GOP this year, but doing so would take attention from LD 2 and LD 8. Maybe it is better for democrats to try and flip the district in 2023 depending on the redistricting outcome, but itâs nearly impossible to make this district lean any less republican without making LD 2 more competitive than it needs to be for the dems. Testa has an advantage over his opponent, Yolanda Garcia-Balicki, with a carefully crafted message, brand, and an up and coming political base in Vineland thanks to his alliance with fellow republican Mayor Anthony Fanucci. LD 2 - Chris Brown probably ticked a lot of republicans off when he announced his retirement. Vince Mazzeo is a force to be reckoned with and the only person Mazzeo was scared of was Brown. If Brown had opted to seek re-election, Mazzeo would have been forced to either retire and try his luck against Jeff Van Drew a year later or put it all on the line against Brown. With his retirement, republicans still had a deep bench of choices, but decided to dig former Assemblyman Vince Polistina out of political irrelevance. At first the choice seemed underwhelming, but Polistina has proven himself.On the flip side, Mazzeo has built himself up as a farmer who happens to be in the legislature. This is a stark contrast to Polistina who has been branded as a âcountry club republicanâ out of touch with Atlantic County that has been reeling with the effects of COVID, and yes, even some issues surrounding Hurricane Sandy. I think that Mazzeo has the advantage. Polistina already lost a race for this race 10 years ago, albeit to an incumbent whose popularity was more than Mazzeoâs ever will. LD 8 - Dawn Addiego, has had a rocky two years since her flip. Republicans immediately began to mobilize against her. The first hit from republicans was their attempted recall of her, although it was pretty much dead on arrival it showed the GOP wasnât going to surrender to her defection. The second hit was when Jean Stanfield jumped into the race for Assembly. It was a strong recruit for republicans whose bench in Burlington County was growing weaker at an alarming rate. The third hit was when the Stanfield/Peters ticket won against a ticket of well funded democrats even when a so called âMAGA Conservsativeâ therenated to split the vote. In early 2020 Jeff Van Drewâs party switch and subsequent re-election victory gave Addiego more confidence. Now she faces Stanfield, a popular Sheriff turned popular Assemblywoman. Addiego has had millions of dollars spent on her behalf as Senate President Steve Sweeney tries to hold onto power. Stanfield has had trouble raising money, but she has a strong ground game, which is what won her an Assembly seat 2 years ago. For Addiegoâs part democrats have largely forgotten her conservative past. I think Stanfield will win, by a few hundred votes (in true Kip Bateman fashion). Diane Allenâs presence on the ticket has galvanised republicans even more. LD 11 - In 2017 Steve Sweeney saw the threat Chris Brown proved to his ability to stay in power so he put a lot of eggs in the basket of rising star Vin Gopal in Monmouth Countyâs 11th district. Monmouth County is staunchly republican, in defiance of a narrow voter registration edge. However the 11th district is really the only politically competitive territory. Gopal won, and immediately began to reap the benefits. He is a valued member of Sweeneyâs inner circle. However Shaun Golden, the Monmouth County GOP Chair, is one of the most powerful party Chairman in the state. He delivered big margins for Chris Smith in 2018. He got the county to hold on and vote for Donald Trump in 2020, and he fended off democrat attempts to flip the Freeholder board in 2018. His county wide candidates have consistently won the LD 11 municipalities. Initially County Commissioner Tom Arnone seemed like the perfect candidate to take on Gopal. This district has a large hispanic population, and he won the 11th district in his 2019 re-election bid. However Golden went in a different direction with political unknown Lori Anetta. IMO this was a bold opinion, Arnone would have been a golden (lol) opportunity. Like LD 8, republicans have a strong, but less impressive ground game, and democrats are outspending republicans like crazy here. Sweeney has flooded a lot of money here in case he loses LD 2 and/or LD 8. A Gopal victory could mean a number of things. If it's narrow it will embolden republicans to absolutely gerrymander this district in 2023. If it's big then republicans may be scared of and maybe even draw the district to be even more friendly to democrats in â23. LD 16 - Another retirement that pissed republicans off was that of Kip Bateman. Andrew Zwicker seemed pretty eager to seek the seat regardless of who the GOP nominee was. After a few arguments over the GOP who was lacking a bench that was largely wiped out in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020, they settled on Mike Pappas, a former Congressman who hasnât been relevant since 2000. Pappas proved to be better than expected as he got to campaigning. Andrew Zwicker has largely taken a laid back role, as a way of letting the ultra conservative Pappas do the damage to himself in this liberal district. There is some hope for republicans, Jack Ciattarelli, who once represented the 16th district in the Assembly, is at the top of the ticket. However a Zwicker victory could prove difficult for republicans. The key to making this district more red is removing Princeton, and South Brunswick and replacing them with the republican leaning Bridgewater. However Zwicker lives in South Brunswick, and the redistricting tie breaker usually isnât keen on removing Senators from their district. Feel free to discuss. | |||||||||||||||||
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This is an objectively good map imo. | |||||||||||||||||
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Here's the new map. | |||||||||||||||||
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NYDem Junior: I see a path to 18 for the GOP. I don't see anything beyond that. The path to 18 are their current 16 seats plus 4/16. I no longer think 16 and 38 are winnable for the GOP. Plus when you consider that 16 got marginally better for dems, i can't understand why dems are complaining. BTW, any chance George Giest makes a comeback in 4? He's not that old.
16 shifted a few points to the right so its still competitive in the right cycle with the right candidates. Personally I think the GOP can flip 4, 11, and 16 if 2023 is the right cycle. They can run a good race in 38 but 14 seems to big of a dream. So the highest the GOP could attain is 19 seats if 2022 actually ends up being a red wave and if Biden's numbers go any lower. As for who those republicans could be, I think George Giest would be a very strong candidate in 4. There have already been rumors that he would make a comeback. The GOP could also run Nick Desilvio for the seat. He is currently a Gloucester County Commissioner and could boost the numbers the GOP needs out of that county, but they could put him on the Assembly ticket and he would still be very helpful electorally. They should also recruit a minority, the district has a notable african american and hispanic population in Winslow and Gloucester Twp. As for the 11th and 16th districts the GOP is going to struggle to find candidates. Tom Arnone is no longer in the 11th and I personally think he would have beaten Vin Gopal had he run in 2021. The 16th district would probably pick a republican from Hillsborough that would be able to turn out voters from the districts biggest Somerset County municipality. | |||||||||||||||||
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District 1- For Dems, a candidate from Vineland, Millville, or Bridgeton are the best choices. District 2- For Dems, an official at the County level or from AC District 3- For Dems, Sweeney, or Burzichelli District 4- For Dems, Fred Madden. For Republicans either George Geist, an elected official from a large town, or a republican lawyer of businessperson from Camden Co. District 8- For Dems, Any elected official from a large town District 11- For Republicans, Marilyn Piperno District 14- Republican businessperson or lawyer from Hamilton District 16- Republican lawyer, businessperson, or elected official from Hillsborough District 21- Democratic elected official from Summit or Westfield District 36- Longshot for GOP.... but Lawyer businessperson, or elected official from larger town District 38- Republican from Paramus
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Don't see Dems winning District 1. I live in Hillsborough, and doubt Republicans can win LD16 - yeah, there are popular Republicans in here, but nobody knows who they are outside Hillsborough. Ask anyone in Flemington or Montgomery or South Brunswick who Doug Tomson is and they'll say "who?" Btw how do you vote on the poll? | ||||||||||||||||||
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As for the Hillsborough thing, I agree, but you have to keep in mind most people don't know who state legislative candidates are. | |||||||||||||||||
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