Putting partisan politics aside, if you are a numbers person the Selzer poll, a gold standard in polling, is very revealing. In 2020, the last Selzer poll in IA had Trump up by 7 and he won by 8. In 2016, the last Selzer poll had Trump up by 7 and he won by 9. In 2012, the last Selzer poll had Obama up by 5 and he won by 5. Of course all polls are snapshots in time and the race and this race could dramatically change in the next 50 days. Hard to deny this campaign has not been full of events. As a data nerd, I thought this analysis was interesting of the shifts polls are picking up since the 2020 election. https://x.com/Zprtr1/status/1835488190649819218 If you have X, you should see @MichaelPruser. He is a data scientist at DDHQ and he posts data about elections, daily.

https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1831014292151316837

Yeh. Follow Pruser. He did a great job tracking the votes from the WA Public Lands Comm race. But yeh...he's a numbers nerd too.

I personally think IA will go to Trump by 7.5% which is slight lower than his 2020 and 2016 margin.

Actually, what would have me concerned as a Democrat are voter registration numbers that Pruser is posting. Hardly any of them have good news for the Democrats. Certainly, no good news in the purple states.

Actually, what would have me concerned as a Democrat are voter registration numbers that Pruser is posting. Hardly any of them have good news for the Democrats. Certainly, no good news in the purple states. This is an understated element that I see a lot of Democrats glossing over. Some will rationalize it as people strategically voting for Nikki Haley earlier in the year but that sounds like copium.

This is an understated element that I see a lot of Democrats glossing over. Some will rationalize it as people strategically voting for Nikki Haley earlier in the year but that sounds like copium. Let's take example of PA, if you were true on this and you were too remove ALL of the voter registrations Republican got from 11/2023 - 04/2024 and 11/2021 - 05/2022, Republicans lead in PA by 100K. But it is very unlikely that ALL of voter registrations Republican got from 11/2023 - 04/2024 and 11/2021 - 05/2022 were Democrats registering as Republicans to vote for Mastriano and Haley.

People have tried to predict elections based on Voter Registration changes for many cycles and have had little to no success. I include the left in this with the upsurge of young voter and minority registrations.

Happy Ann Selzer Day

Wow.

HOLY CRAP! Selzer is the best pollster in the country, and their poll just upended the race. Mad respect to Ann Selzer for going out on a limb like this, and I hope she's right!

Do we know of any early vote data for Iowa? Admittedly I have not been thinking about this state at all.

Historic gender gap, anyone? Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin. Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%. Overall, Harris holds a 20-point lead with women, 56% to 36%, similar to where she was in September. But Trump’s lead with men has shrunk from 27 points in September (59% to 32%) to 14 points today (52% to 38%). https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

Do we know of any early vote data for Iowa? Michael McDonald's site has the breakdown of all early voters as D 39.6 / R 39.8 / I 20.6 . The write-up of the Selzer poll doesn't break out those who have already voted. https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-iowa/

I agree with this analysis: hit, miss, or instructive. https://x.com/danpfeiffer/status/1852854243109249385

I agree with this analysis: hit, miss, or instructive. #2 is unlikely - Selzer is scary good. #3 would be enough for Harris to win. I can't help but think back to her poll showing Trump ahead by 7 right before the 2016 election. She went out on a limb then too and it was a harbinger of what was to come.

https://x.com/maxtmcc/status/1852861805434949940

October 9th on the electoral vote thread: Pretty much the only predictions I have any faith in are Jon Ralston in Nevada and the Selzer poll in Iowa. Selzer is not only good but she is also validating my hunch about a crazy large gender gap. I am going out on that limb with her and predicting Harris will win Iowa.

If the poll is accurate and Harris actually does have a chance to pick up Iowa, Trump has already lost.

Why is the Selzer poll inputted on the site have Trump leading when Harris is?

Why is the Selzer poll inputted on the site have Trump leading when Harris is? Those are older Selzer polls.

Yeh, huge news. I like the theory that this poll is instructive. And it could be both instructive and accurate. I was on the fence about switching, but might as well. Probably wouldn't be making switch for any other pollster. If Harris wins Iowa, she's winning the race easy - like Obama easy (28 or 29 States). And if she wins Iowa, it probably means IA-01 and IA-03 go to the Democrats in the House as well.

R:11448 Maryland Republican93 ( 1181.7523 points) " Sat, November 2, 2024 11:32:27 PM UTC-6:00 Polls can be wrong and I guess one has to weigh how much stock we put in a given poll. Sure Selzer has Harris +3, but Emerson has Trump +9-10. I have respect in both firms, but fundamentals and all tell me this race is much closer to Emerson’s number. Zero attention from either Trump or Harris. If I’m wrong, so be it. But I have this race is Safely Trump and the Selzer poll will not convince me otherwise. I had to go back to the 2018 Governors race to check my prediction, I was certainly in the minority on this site keeping my prediction for Reynolds. I’ll trust my instincts again! :)

Some notes here on the house race polls https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/ This is notable and these results right here look brutal for Trump. 2020 Election Results CD-1 Trump 51-47 CD-2 Trump 51-47 CD-3 Trump 49-49 CD-4 Trump 63-36 2024 Selzer Polling CD-1 Harris 54-37 CD-2 Harris 46-45 CD-3 Harris 48-43 CD-4 Trump 50-41

https://x.com/WarClandestine/status/1853242622787101012