Anxiety is present but it was mentioned in 2008 that Republicans had led in the early vote and then John McCain lost by 12 points in that state. I don't think Trump will lose by that much but there's been an odd anomaly. Dems may be waiting until Election day to vote out of fear Republicans might try to torch drop off boxes or interfere with Mail-in Voting (Think a Succession situation). So perhaps there's a different line of thinking this year.

Switch over to Cautiously Optimistic after Tony Hinchcliffe's racist comedy set. Kill Tony? I think the Republicans want to.

Switch over to Cautiously Optimistic after Tony Hinchcliffe's racist comedy set. Kill Tony? I think the Republicans want to. The irony is that the more Trump campaigns, the more he loses because he or the people who campaign with him are idiots who can't keep their mouths shut. All Harris has to do it literally nothing and she'll win. If Trump really wanted to win, he'd stop campaigning.

RealClearPolitics indicates nine swing states. I tend to group them together as the four Southerly ones (GA, NC, AZ, NV) and the five Northerly ones (PA, MI, WI, MN, NH). I feel confident Trump will carry all four Southerly ones, which (assuming Trump also carries his District in Maine, and Kamala gets hers in Nebraska), results in just 268 EVs. Trump MUST also carry just one, but at least one, of the five Northerly states too. Of course, this is just the pessimistic scenario. The optimistic scenario for Trump looks better than it did the last two times. I never thought Trump had a shot in Virginia in 2016 or '20, but this time I think he just may, for example.

image://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3dc918d0f373f6d08765a2c116e49c47e27baba7e6087272371c60cdb8fc0046.jpg

Curious

According to him, He's going to Venezuela

Isnt Venezuela full of left wing communists that Trump would think of as the enemy within infiltrating though :O ?

According to him, He's going to Venezuela# Isnt Venezuela full of left wing communists ;) :O ?

Any flips if Biden stayed in and flopped second debate? I personally believe Trump would get 400+ EV if that were to happen.

Any flips if Biden stayed in and flopped second debate? I personally believe Trump would get 400+ EV if that were to happen. 400 electoral votes would have required New York and probably one more safe blue state like Oregon to flip. Given the swing in New York as is, I suppose it could have given Biden a sweat either way. But we probably would have seen red Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico and Virginia if he had stayed in.

This is an interesting list, especially that the trend continued in some of these places even in a bad year for Dems. 1. Grand Junction CO - the city (not the metro) has gone to non-Republicans in recent years - a dramatic shift. Western Slope of CO on the way to Utah. 2. Fort Collins - Loveland - maybe not so much of a surprise. Ski areas and Colorado State. North of Denver by about 45 minutes 3. Colorado Springs - continues to head left. This once capital of Colorado conservatives last year elected a non-Republican Mayor. Will City Council elections this year furth go to the left? https://x.com/Steve_Sailer/status/1887635815741989044