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D:1RP ( 5508.0200 points)
Sat, November 3, 2018 05:01:28 PM UTC0:00
I wouldn't put too much stock in reading the early voting tea leaves. Ralston knows how Nevada operates in a normal election, but this may not be one. The early voting could simple be cannibalizing election day voting and when election day comes around those extra votes now could be missing from election day.

Early voting in 2016 across the nation was looking very good for Democrats and we know how that turned out.
 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Sat, November 3, 2018 06:43:41 PM UTC0:00
Nate Silver says to ignore early vote analysis... except Jon Ralston. His track record is better than the polls and most of the Nevada vote is already in. Ralston has a blog post up now:

The bottom line: Republicans need a really good day Tuesday to stop Democrats from at least a pastel blue wave and it may get to navy blue if the Dems hold their own on Election Day. It appears that these elections are breaking for the Dems at the end.

If I were Dean Heller, who has bucked large firewalls before (see 2012) and Adam Laxalt, I would be worried.
 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1532.0778 points)
Sat, November 3, 2018 07:45:42 PM UTC0:00
I give Ralston a lot of credibility. He was one of the very few people to predict Reid's 2010 win and did so by analyzing the early vote. Angle was so confident she shut her HQ down at 5pm while polls remained open for several more hours. Still, this is Trump's America, and anything can happen I suppose.
 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4113.6006 points)
Mon, November 5, 2018 02:20:18 AM UTC0:00
From Jon Ralston's prediction article:
If Heller loses – and I am only slightly more confident of this prediction than I was of the one I made six years ago – there will be something Shakespearean in his being ousted by Rosen, who is in the contest because of a recommendation by Las Vegas Judge Elissa Cadish. Cadish should be a federal judge by now, but Heller, in an extraordinary act of demagoguery and pettiness, blocked her from becoming one in 2013. Now Cadish is poised to become a state Supreme Court justice and her bridesmaid, Rosen, is about to become a U.S. senator.
[Link]
 
D:8255My Congressman is a Weiner ( -19.7986 points)
x2
Mon, November 5, 2018 02:32:08 AM UTC0:00
Nevada is lucky to have Ralston.
 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1532.0778 points)
Sun, November 25, 2018 05:35:25 PM UTC0:00
Heller held his own in Clark County--40.94% in 2012 vs 40.90% in 2018. However, Berkeley was at 49.97% while Rosen pushed that up to 55.06%.