| D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 5444.70 points)
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| December 07, 2022 07:22pm |
CA Pol Junkie: So what will happen? Here is my guess:
- Democrats exceed (low) expectations, gaining 1-3 seats in the Senate and doing better than expected in the House.
- Democratic overperformance will be uneven, however, as Republican women will not realign in states where abortion is still legal. This will result in strong Democratic performance in states like Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, Arizona, and Texas but middling performance in places like California and New York. This uneven overperformance will likely allow the GOP to take the House.
- All abortion referenda will go to the pro-choice side and it will be by 20+ points in Michigan.
I'm going to pat myself on the back for these predictions - that is as close to nailing it as I'm ever going to get. I was surprised that there was no apparent backlash from Dobbs in Texas and Ohio, but perhaps I underestimated the magnitude of the negative environment otherwise for Democrats which was too much to overcome in conservative states.
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