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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 14, 2025 09:55pm |
Should also state I've biked through this area. There's one part of this riding that is heavily jewish and heavily wealthy and it seems like they lean towards stintz. It was interesting because I've been in other areas and the wealthier homes I've seen have leaned towards the Liberals. But what I had forgotten to take into account is generally the area was not home to those who are Jewish. Now that may not be completely true but the riding is 22.2% Jewish compared to my riding of Toronto Centre sitting at 1.7% Jewish. So this isn't a completely crazy observation.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 14, 2025 02:21am |
Yes, it's the only one she's endorsed publicly. I should note the way endorsements work here in Canada is that generally provincial and federal wings of most parties are separate. As well remember that the NDP is now primarily an amalgamation of Federal Liberals and Provincial/Federal NDP members. In this case this is the only candidate that Rachel Notley explicitly supported and said out loud she's endorsing this election to my knowledge.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 13, 2025 11:21pm |
at some point in the future I think this will be the first conservative seat in rural Alberta to fall. Don't ask me for the date that happens but I feel it would.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 13, 2025 02:25pm |
Not that I'm gonna get it but there's a handful of districts that I would love polling on. Abbotsford-South Langley I'd love a poll on because I have a theory Mike de Jong is going to take a chunk of vote from the Tory candidate and allow Kevin Gillies to sneak up the middle and win in a vote split.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 13, 2025 12:38pm |
Seats in play if this poll is right aside from D-M-CR which is almost likely to go to the Liberals
Saskatoon West
Saskatoon-University
Regina-Wascana
Regina-Lewvan
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 13, 2025 12:34pm |
Of note in that poll
Regina
42 CPC
37 LIB
11 NDP
3 PPC
3 GP
Saskatoon
43 CPC
38 LIB
13 NDP
3 PPC
1 GP
Rest of the Province
49 CPC
23 LIB
15 NDP
5 PPC
4 GP
Last Election in Sasaktchewan
CPC 59
NDP 21.1
LIB 10.6
PPC 6.6
GP 1.1
OTH 1.6
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 12, 2025 11:26pm |
I think the bigger question is who ends up winning this seat. I don't know if NDP voters will look at these polls and decide to abandon Jagmeet to prevent a tory victory. On other other hand riding polls can tend to be volatile. We don't have many of them and from this poll there was 18 days until election and it's very clear things can shift in that time.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 12, 2025 10:53pm |
I am really curious to see if Bylsma has any effect here. Normally for the CHP I wouldn't care but he's won elected office here and was frank about his membership in that party. There's a possibility he may split the vote with Allison and it ends up electing Korstanje. I'm doubting it but it's tough to see without actual polling.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 12, 2025 10:51pm |
They have this as tossup but I view it for Kaiser mostly because this time she's an elected official and also because I just feel in a tight contest you go with which party has the momentum and I feel they can just get Kaiser over the finish line here.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 12, 2025 10:06pm |
Will be interesting if the progressive parties might vote strategically to keep the Tory out. But it's a tossup.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 12, 2025 10:05pm |
Feeling on this race. I honestly feel the Tories may lose this. I've read a little bit about this seat. again if we had polling it would be nice. But de Jong is absolutely going to pull some votes from the Tories. I honestly feel this is a wild card riding. If Kevin Gillies wins it will be because of a vote split but it's also not crazy to think that Mike de Jong himself could win considering his long public service career. The tory in this has been considered by many people to have basically bought the nomination and it's peeved people.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 12, 2025 09:01pm |
I think Bardeesy wins this, I've been around the riding a bit. haven't done a full look at lawn signs on this but I feel if any riding may be algorithmic proof it may be this one. Because there's not an incumbent and Karpoche was a great MPP she definitely is a great candidate but she's running for a party that's likely going to be 4th in the house of commons. Its going to be a big lift in this riding. She just picked the wrong election to run in.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 12, 2025 03:36pm |
Can someone remove the poll with 443 respondents it's 945 for the 3/27-4/02 poll
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 10, 2025 10:47pm |
Sorry. I was trying to get the map to work here I thought I could get it to go back to 1997 because at that point the riding still looked the same.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 09, 2025 09:17pm |
I would say that's the right one I'll fix it. But I'll keep him since he is an elected official
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 09, 2025 12:54pm |
Of note, no NDP candidate here potentially. Could mean the difference and it's possible that Perkins won because of Vote Splitting last time.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 09, 2025 11:30am |
There is a place in hell for these people.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 08, 2025 01:16am |
I've added the Harper endorsement. I should make note this is a rare public endorsement for anybody he didn't do this for Erin O'Toole or for Andrew Scheer.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 07, 2025 05:38pm |
And bad news for the Tories here. The candidate they turfed is now running as an independent
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 06, 2025 02:08pm |
TBF Political winds shifted big time.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 06, 2025 02:07pm |
"Rather than give the man what he wants..." Exactly. We're not giving Trump what he wants.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 06, 2025 10:57am |
We don't have a map for this one but I'm assuming its most of the tu nedhe-wiilideh area
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 06, 2025 01:09am |
Former City Councillor here running for the greens.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 05, 2025 01:58pm |
There are 23 days left but honestly in 23 what is going to absolutely shift people against Carney is the question I keep asking myself. What is going to dent Carney's favorability rating down to where Poilievre's is. If anyone can tell me I don't see it at the moment. The fact is Jagmeet and PP are known quantities and both are primarily career politicians aside from Jagmeet being a lawyer he's spent almost 30% of his life in political office with admittedly quite a few accomplishments on pushing the liberals to adapt policies and Poilievre has spent nearly his entire life in political office with very little accomplishments. Carney is not a career politician. He may have had some offices working for the government but he just resonates better with Canadians. He also doesn't mince words.
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| LIB:6149 | Campari_007 ( 1501.16 points) | April 05, 2025 01:52pm |
might want to fix your predictions here guys lol
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