| DISCUSSION |
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 02, 2025 10:11am |
CA Pol Junkie: This election had over 80% of the turnout of the 2022 midterm.
Exactly, still a lower turnout than a midterm. Who do you suppose a majority of the remaining 20% that didn't vote would break for?
Also, saying 2022 and 2025 had a similar enough amount of voters doesn't prove that the electorate that turned out yesterday wasn't more D-favorable than the one that turned out in 2022.
CA Pol Junkie: If Republicans want to win Supreme Court races, maybe they should try running candidates who aren't party stooges.
Perhaps, but Democrats have run party stooges the past 3 court elections and it's worked out wonderfully for them. A squishy moderate R might have done better but I struggle to see how this hypothetical dream candidate could close a 10-point deficit.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 02, 2025 05:37am |
Campari_007: I get to explain to Republicans how bad this is for them.
Explain away LOL.
I have to wonder when Dems will realize that winning/overperforming in low-turnout specials and random off-year elections isn't as impressive as they make it seem. They've been bragging about it for years but the second a general election that people actually vote in comes around they don't do nearly as well as they do in specials (2022) or they end up underperforming expectations (2024). It's the exact same situation Republicans faced a decade ago, they won elections few people turned out for but bombed in higher-turnout environments. In other words, it's a turnout issue.
As for this race: If Wisconsin Rs want to win elections like these they need to make an effort to move them so they coincide with midterm/presidential elections. I believe this can be done if voters approve of it in a referendum but don't quote me on that. The electorate that turns out for these random April elections are obviously too hostile for Republicans to win over, they lost three times in a row by the exact same margin. At the very least Kinser would have won if a 2022-type of electorate turned out.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 02, 2025 05:19am |
This district is more rural and had lower turnout than FL-6, recipes for a larger than expected GOP underperformance.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | April 02, 2025 05:14am |
BREAKING: Electoral superstar Randy Fine wins in an unexpected landslide against Democrat Josh Weil, defying previous expectations of a nailbiter race.
The Hammer of Zion officially enters Congress.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | March 31, 2025 02:28pm |
BrentinCO: I was going to shift my pick to Weil but seems like a lot of negative stuff coming out this weekend on him and sticking with slight Fine.
No way Weil was ever going to win this, it's an R+30 seat in Florida.
I do agree this will be closer than it needs to be, though not within single digits IMO.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | March 13, 2025 07:16am |
Luzerne County Historian: Is it me or does Auditor seem like a step down from Secretary of State?
Where else could he go? He just tried running for higher office last year and got trashed hard in the primary.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | March 13, 2025 07:10am |
CA Pol Junkie: Or it would continue the tradition of popular former governors of the party opposite to the partisan lean of a state getting beat when they run for Senate.
Maybe, but unlike all those other governors Sununu would be running in a state Republicans are still competitive in.
This isn't another Hogan 2024 or Bullock 2020 situation.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | March 04, 2025 05:41am |
Brown seems like one of those candidates that look amazing on paper but end up underperforming expectations when they do actually run.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | February 13, 2025 06:22am |
LSjustbloggin: I hope swamp creature McConnell retires at long last.
If he was seeking reelection he wouldn't be actively defying Trump by voting against his more controversial cabinet nominees, i.e. being the only R to vote against Gabbard. Considering this, I think it's pretty obvious he's retiring.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | January 29, 2025 06:12am |
Rs tend to do better in higher turnout environments these days, the lower the turnout the better Dems generally perform.
It used to be the opposite a decade ago.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | December 06, 2024 05:12am |
E Pluribus Unum: Anyone have any info on who those 6 other people voted for?
5 voted for George A. Nelson
1 voted for Thomas Charles O'Brien
[Link]
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 17, 2024 06:30am |
Peltola's not much of an electoral juggernaut when her opposition is united and she's running against only one Republican, color me shocked.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 14, 2024 09:16am |
If this district fails to meet the compactness criteria then it should have been redrawn to be more compact, simple as. There is no reason to follow any of these criteria if you're not going to apply them to ALL of the districts.
The Cali map is also poor with regards to communities of interest. It literally splits Bakersfield in half, following racial lines. That seems problematic to me, but what do I know.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 14, 2024 05:21am |
Trump becomes the first R presidential candidate to receive over a million votes in Maryland since George W. twenty years ago.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 14, 2024 04:52am |
Don't know much about daddy Gaetz but he can't be worse than his son.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 14, 2024 04:49am |
Allegheny is shifting to the left but that's obviously not enough for Ds to win statewide with.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 14, 2024 04:47am |
The suburban trends toward the left are obviously still ongoing but have stagnated this cycle. I was shocked Harris did as poorly in the suburbs as she did, anyone saying Harris was at all good candidate is delusional.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 14, 2024 04:42am |
Campari_007: Kinda feel this one is gerrymandered to hell.
Like half of the California districts are gerrymandered to hell, districts with this sort of shape should be illegal. Compactness above all else.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 14, 2024 04:35am |
Luzerne County Historian: What a weird rule.
Not only weird but archaic and undemocratic, it should be repealed.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 13, 2024 06:19am |
Republicans officially unofficially hold the House according to DDHQ, might be an even smaller GOP majority than last time. Subpar results to say the least.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 13, 2024 06:07am |
Begich is favored to flip this seat as of now, RCV repeal is also still leading by 1 point. Would be great if these results hold.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 13, 2024 05:54am |
This district is too blue for Republicans to win in this day and age.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 12, 2024 06:44am |
Sad! Garcia's winning streak here was amazing while it lasted.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 12, 2024 06:39am |
Campari_007: Man, this is such a slow count here.
Welcome to California.
|
Race
|
|
| |
| W:11230 | Arthur ( 520.61 points) | November 11, 2024 10:38am |
The Massachusetts GOP still has a pulse, sort of.
|
Race
|
|
