Huge shift with both Baker and Polito both announcing they're not running for re-election. Unless Republicans can recruit someone substantial like Patrick M. O'Connor or Bruce Tarr this is now Diehl's race to lose. Likely D flip imo. Oh, this race is WIDE open now. Yes, the Democrats' chances definitely go up with Baker and Polito not running, but Diehl is no certainty if a moderate Republican jumps in. It could be O'Connor or Tarr. Could even be Beth Lindstrom, John Kingston, Kevin O'Connor, or Richard Tisei. There's a few popular state reps like Sheila Harrington, Kim Ferguson, or Hannah Kane who might be possibilities too. It could be someone completely out of nowhere too. But I would question where the funding would come from. If nothing happens, Diehl wins the primary and gets crushed by a Democrat next November. But I don't think Republicans would want to wager with that. In 2018, the senate race was going to be an uphill battle to unseat Warren, but this Governor's race is now OPEN. Wasting time on Diehl in a state where Trump always had a 29% approval rating would seem like a wasted opportunity. But, with Jim Lyons as chair, I'm sure the GOP will find a way to mess it up.

Wasting time on Diehl in a state where Trump always had a 29% approval rating would seem like a wasted opportunity. You would think so. But, in a party whose alignment seems to be more disposed towards a bizarre cult of personality than Republicanism itself, I think you'd find a significant portion of the electorate that would actively prefer to lose with what they consider to be a pure candidate whose loyalty to Trump is unquestioned than win with a "moderate" candidate, a "Pyrrhic" victory I suspect many in the Republican electorate would view as tantamount to electing a liberal Democrat anyway. Baker's bowing out is an indication that even the Massachusetts Republican Party is not isolated from the Trump tide.

Dem pickup I would say. Massachusetts voters wont vote for a Republican for governor not named Charlie Baker.

The MA and MD GOP watched as Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan were two of the most popular governors in the country & Donald Trump lost their states by over 30 points twice & said “let’s follow that Trump path.”

The MA and MD GOP watched as Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan were two of the most popular governors in the country & Donald Trump lost their states by over 30 points twice & said “let’s follow that Trump path.” They just can't get out of their own way sometimes. I'm less familiar with Maryland's situation. But in Massachusetts, it's the cancer that is Jim Lyons party leadership. The sooner he's gone, the better it'll be for the MA GOP. However, they basically waved the white flag of surrender to Healey with the primary going to Diehl.