For better or worse, it is way too early to get worked up over polls, especially when the presidential race could take tumultuous turns before summer.

Feels like this race has been trending away from Biden. PA NV and maybe even MI are probably all shifting to Trump/Republican nominee. The drop down for Trump v Biden with independent candidates seems pretty accurate as to where the race is imo. Despite many Democrats exuberance over the mid-term elections, there were tremendous warning signs. I think its highly possible the Republicans will sweep the White House, the Senate, and the House next year. Inclined to agree, if the election were held today. A lot can change in a year, however. Obama was in rough shape at this point in 2011. There's a difference when Trump is on the ballot versus off the ballot too. He does seem to drive out voters who vote straight ticket Republican but otherwise sit out off-year elections.

How can we get Trump as the GOP nominee in this race without deleting the predictions?

The replace feature? Was Trump inserted into this race not using the replace feature?

Anybody else its feel its becoming increasingly likely that Trump wins one of MI WI or PA and Harris wins one of NC GA or AZ? I'm seeing PA go to Trump and NC go to Harris for a 273-265 Harris victory. How crazy would it be for PA and MI to go for Trump and NC and GA go for Harris.

Anybody else its feel its becoming increasingly likely that Trump wins one of MI WI or PA and Harris wins one of NC GA or AZ? Although that is certainly a plausible specific scenario, I think a razor thin electoral college win is unlikely for either candidate. I expect the polls are wrong everywhere in one direction or the other and one candidate (more likely Harris IMO) will take at least 5 of the 7 swing states.

I've been predicting Trump for the Rust Belt "blue wall" states for a while and will continue to do so as long as polling remains as close as it is. Trump would need a small polling error on his favor, but it wouldn't need to be as large as the ones that occurred in 2020 or 2016. That being said, I'm actually more optimistic about Harris's chances in AZ than most. I keep thinking back to 2022 when the Democrats picked up the Governor's mansion despite their candidate barely campaigning and polls showing Lake ahead towards the end. Arizona specifically seems like a state where suburban, Republican-leaning voters who are disaffected after January 6 actually make up a decent portion of the electorate. It might be the one state where Liz Cheney rhetoric makes a difference.

For the sake of the country, hope you are right CA Pol Junkie. Worst case scenario is a close electoral vote imho. I have this nightmare of another Jan 6 where Trump claims that all votes for Kennedy should be added to his because Kennedy endorsed him in states where it cost him electoral votes. Or maybe that the NC results are invalid because of the Hurricane. Or vice versa. Leftists upset with a Trump victory claiming voter suppression in some states.

This FOX poll is completely insane. Trump up 2 in the popular vote, Harris up 6 in the swing states. https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-trump-ahead-harris-2-points-nationally

Worst case scenario is a close electoral vote imho. I'd take a nail-biting Harris win over any Trump win - how about these scenarios: Trump win of any size: many levels of chaos Harris narrow win, Republicans keep House: Trump fights to get electoral votes thrown out Harris narrow win, Democrats take House: Trump fights to get electoral votes out but the effort goes nowhere Harris big win (taking something unexpected like FL or TX): Trump whines and screams but the country moves on with an uneventful transition of power

Honestly I am very confident that Kamala takes NC. I've seen a LOT of Kamala support here, significantly more than I saw for Biden and even Trump (both times). I've even heard from some family that Red Areas of the state have a lot of Kamala/Walz signage (waiting to see confirmation myself on that front), and most pundits I have seen say that if Trump Loses NC he can't really recover without flipping a significant amount of the other swing states. Which doesn't bode well for him given that 5 of them have high profile Senate Races that will be playing a major role in turnout. It could be just me but I don't see Arizona sending Gallego to Senate as a rebuke to Kari but then also sending Trump back to DC. Michigan's a slightly different story because like most stories of GOP winning, its not more votes for them, its LESS votes for Dems. But I think that a majority of the Uncommitted Slate will be voting Kamala, as they know that its the best case scenario for them.

This FOX poll is completely insane. Trump up 2 in the popular vote, Harris up 6 in the swing states. Well, at least they aren't tweaking their weighting to make their results look like most of the other polls.

Well, at least they aren't tweaking their weighting to make their results look like most of the other polls. So what happens if Kamala wins the Electoral College while Trump wis the popular vote? Anyone think Trump won't insist that he should win because he won the popular vote?

The Trump campaign has now cancelled an interview with NBC to go along with the cancellations with CNBC and 60 Minutes. It is clear the campaign is trying to push Trump over the finish line while minimizing how much people see of him. I don't think it will work because all anyone will be talking about for the next 3 weeks is how Trump can't talk to the media so how will he talk to world leaders for the next four years until he is 82 years old? Harris will make the point every day, point out that she even went on Fox News while Trump is saying weird and dangerous things at his rallies and avoiding talking to anyone who disagrees with him. Democratic Super PACs will flood the airwaves with ads saying the same thing. Looking weak and minimizing exposure right before the election is the last thing a campaign should be doing unless they think the alternative is even worse. Trump can't make a persuasive case for why he should be president, which is the same reason Biden was forced out of the race. Trump can't win with only his cultists - now that it is crunch time he needs to look like he has it together for his more reluctant supporters. I'm increasingly optimistic that he can't.

The polling has been consist. A tight race within the margin of error. Each week a few points one way, the next a few points the other. And the newer less reliable pollsters seem to even things out or skew the polling average at the right time. I can see a narrow Trump win or a narrow Harris win or a big Harris win. Seems like some demographics Harris needs are tighter than Biden, others are wider. The big question I have unanswered is there really a substantial (meaning enough to make a difference) Republicans for Harris movement. I don't know how you poll that properly and don't think we'll find that out until election day.

The big question I have unanswered is there really a substantial (meaning enough to make a difference) Republicans for Harris movement. I don't know how you poll that properly and don't think we'll find that out until election day. Rather than focus on the polls, I look at the 2020 results and see what has changed: In Harris's favor: - There will be a few Adam Kinzinger / Liz Cheney type Republicans who either vote third party/write-in or vote for Harris on democracy / constitutional grounds but I think this group is quite small among the broader electorate. - There will be Republican women who vote for Harris based on abortion and/or just having enough of Trump. I expect this group to be much larger than the first and have a significant impact on the results. - a cohort of older voters from 2020 will be replaced by new voters who are either younger or naturalized citizens. I figure this will net Harris about 0.5 to 1 point in the margin - Biden had no ground game for GOTV in 2020 while Trump did. This time, Harris has a strong ground game while Trump's is outsourced and questionable. This could potentially have a big impact (2 points in the margin) in the swing states if the effectiveness is lopsided. - The primary enthusiasm for Biden in 2020 was that he was not Trump. Democrats have a more inspiring candidate while Trump has lost a step. Working against Harris: - Random low information "do something different" voters, but I think this is a relatively small number since Trump has been president before. I suspect these people can be strongly influenced by the tenor of the end of the campaign, voting for someone who looks like a winner or gets better press at the end (as Trump did in 2016) - Then there is what I will call the "misogyny vote", which is people (mostly but not entirely men) who consciously or not associate desirable qualities of being president like strength with being male. This is the vote Harris and Obama have been pursuing when they point out how weak Trump is. If Trump wins, this is the vote that puts him over the top. On net, I think a historic gender gap will be too much for Trump to overcome, especially if the end of his campaign looks as weak as it currently appears to be. I could be wrong though: I'm not going to bet the farm that the American people (or at least the Electoral College) won't do something deeply foolish.

It is under two weeks, how are we feeling?

I’m not worried because I know they’ll rig it 10 times better than they did last time Seriously though I voted “Cautiously Optimistic” I hope and believe Harris will win but I’m also being cautious because I still remember what happened in 2016.

Voted for Outright Concern. Seems that over the last couple of weeks, Harris has stopped emphasizing economic policies in favor of January 6/threats to democracy pearl-clutching, and during this same time we have seen polling shift in Trump's favor. People who were voting for Harris based on threats to democracy were probably already in the fold; but working class voters in the Rust Belt and elsewhere are the ones with whom Harris needs to close the deal. Harris also got baited into doing way too many sit-down interviews during this time period. Part of getting your message out also means being in control of it, and the Fox News interview played into Republican narratives. Recent polling hasn't been great either. Pennsylvania keeps going back and forth, and the Gaza TikTok brainrot crowd seems like it will manifest itself in Michigan after all. The early vote in Nevada has been good for Republicans so far. On the Senate side it looks like Tester is done and Brown is next up. Maybe Texas or Nebraska will do the funny thing but I doubt it.

Where's the Pretty Confident option? I can only speak for NC personally; but she seems to be making real ground down here. Way more excitement than I saw of Biden and even Trump. GRANTED I live in one of the more Blue Areas, but even in Redder areas of the state Kamala seems to be getting support. The other Swing States have other races going on that have potential to sway the results (Gallego, Casey, Rosen, Baldwin, Slotkin) meanwhile 2016 had the reverse (McCain, Johnson, Toomey, Rubio). In both cases, Michigan is/can be the outlier. No Senate Seat in 2016 and having the Senate Race not play a role in 2024. I will say I predicted that if Harper was the Nominee, Michigan was guaranteed to go Kamala, with Slotkin I can see it going either or.

Anxiety is present but it was mentioned in 2008 that Republicans had led in the early vote and then John McCain lost by 12 points in that state. I don't think Trump will lose by that much but there's been an odd anomaly. Dems may be waiting until Election day to vote out of fear Republicans might try to torch drop off boxes or interfere with Mail-in Voting (Think a Succession situation). So perhaps there's a different line of thinking this year.

Switch over to Cautiously Optimistic after Tony Hinchcliffe's racist comedy set. Kill Tony? I think the Republicans want to.

Switch over to Cautiously Optimistic after Tony Hinchcliffe's racist comedy set. Kill Tony? I think the Republicans want to. The irony is that the more Trump campaigns, the more he loses because he or the people who campaign with him are idiots who can't keep their mouths shut. All Harris has to do it literally nothing and she'll win. If Trump really wanted to win, he'd stop campaigning.

RealClearPolitics indicates nine swing states. I tend to group them together as the four Southerly ones (GA, NC, AZ, NV) and the five Northerly ones (PA, MI, WI, MN, NH). I feel confident Trump will carry all four Southerly ones, which (assuming Trump also carries his District in Maine, and Kamala gets hers in Nebraska), results in just 268 EVs. Trump MUST also carry just one, but at least one, of the five Northerly states too. Of course, this is just the pessimistic scenario. The optimistic scenario for Trump looks better than it did the last two times. I never thought Trump had a shot in Virginia in 2016 or '20, but this time I think he just may, for example.

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