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  MO US Senate - R Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Missouri > Senate Class III
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
TypeRepublican Primary Election
Filing Deadline March 29, 2022 - 05:00pm Central
Polls Open August 02, 2022 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close August 02, 2022 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2023 - 11:00am
Term End January 03, 2029 - 11:00am
ContributorRBH
Last ModifiedRBH June 23, 2024 01:13pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description Filing went from February 22nd to March 29th, with an extra filing period from April 5th to 8th due to the withdrawal of Democratic candidate Scott Sifton.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2016
NameRoy Blunt Votes1,378,458 (49.18%)
Term01/03/2017 - 01/03/2023 Margin78,258 (+2.79%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2022
NameEric Schmitt Votes1,146,966 (55.43%)
Term01/03/2023 - 01/03/2029 Margin274,272 (+13.26%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceMO US Senate 11/08/2022
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
02/05/2021 08/02/2022
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Eric Greitens 2 1 1 --
Eric Schmitt 8 2 ----
Tossup 1 ------
Leaning Call: Eric Schmitt (60.00%)
Weighted Call: Eric Schmitt (95.53%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

03/23/2021 07/27/2022

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Attorney General Eric Schmitt Rep. Vicky Hartzler Gov. Eric Greitens Rep. Billy Long Mark McCloskey President Pro Tempore Dave Schatz Patrick A. Lewis
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 299,282 (45.65%) 144,903 (22.10%) 124,155 (18.94%) 32,603 (4.97%) 19,540 (2.98%) 7,509 (1.15%) 6,085 (0.93%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -154,379 (-23.55%) -175,127 (-26.71%) -266,679 (-40.67%) -279,742 (-42.66%) -291,773 (-44.50%) -293,197 (-44.72%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 6/30 $1,477,265.75 7/13 $1,119,325.88 7/13 $371,857.59 $-- 6/30 $35,965.70 7/13 $1,335,730.12 $--
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Website]
Entry Date 03/11/2021 06/10/2021 03/22/2021 08/03/2021 05/18/2021 11/16/2021 02/22/2022
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (18 from 6 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg30.35%-- 20.33%-- 17.66%-- 6.86%-- 4.05%-- 2.98%-- 0.10%--
Survey USA 
07/24/22-07/27/22
28.00% 11.0 13.00% 2.0 20.00% 6.0 8.00% 1.0 4.00% 2.0 3.00% 1.0 0.00% 1.0
Remington Research 
07/22/22-07/23/22
32.00% 3.0 25.00% 2.0 18.00% 3.0 8.00% -- 4.00% -- 3.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
07/21/22-07/23/22
32.90% 12.9 20.90% 4.9 16.00% 10.0 5.10% 2.9 4.20% 0.2 2.20% -- 0.10% --
Tarrance Group (R) 
07/05/22-07/07/22
28.00% -- 24.00% -- 16.00% -- 6.00% -- 4.00% -- 4.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
06/02/22-06/05/22
20.00% -- 16.00% -- 26.00% -- 8.00% -- 4.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
05/16/22-05/18/22
18.90% 4.1 23.40% 6.8 26.10% 4.4 9.10% 3.1 3.20% 1.4 2.60% 0.5 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Curtis D. Vaughn Eric James McElroy Robert Allen C. W. Gardner Dave Sims Bernie Mowinski Deshon Porter
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 3,451 (0.53%) 2,805 (0.43%) 2,111 (0.32%) 2,044 (0.31%) 1,949 (0.30%) 1,602 (0.24%) 1,574 (0.24%)
Margin-295,831 (-45.12%) -296,477 (-45.22%) -297,171 (-45.32%) -297,238 (-45.33%) -297,333 (-45.35%) -297,680 (-45.40%) -297,708 (-45.40%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website
Entry Date 03/29/2022 02/22/2022 02/22/2022 02/22/2022 02/22/2022 02/22/2022 02/22/2022
MATCHUP POLLS (18 from 6 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.50%-- 0.30%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Survey USA 
07/24/22-07/27/22
0.00% -- 0.00% 1.0 0.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Remington Research 
07/22/22-07/23/22
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
07/21/22-07/23/22
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.50% -- 0.30% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Tarrance Group (R) 
07/05/22-07/07/22
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
06/02/22-06/05/22
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Trafalgar Group 
05/16/22-05/18/22
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
LBR Old LW
VIEW 7 MORE CANDIDATES

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Jason Smith (R)
Feb 09, 2022
John Brunner (R)
Jan 01, 2022
Ann Wagner (R)
Aug 03, 2021
Mike Kehoe (R)
Mar 22, 2021
John R. "Jay" Ashcroft (R)
Mar 10, 2021
Roy Blunt (R)
Mar 08, 2021

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
07/25/2022 Vicky Hartzler TVAd Contrast eng Chainsaw  00:00:30 RP 
07/11/2022 Vicky Hartzler vs Eric Schmitt TVAd Attack eng Eric and Eric  00:00:30 RP 
07/06/2022 Eric Greitens TVAd Feel Good eng Because I fought for you, they came after me.  00:00:59 RP 
07/05/2022 vs Eric Greitens TVAd Attack eng Afraid  00:00:30 RP 
06/24/2022 vs Eric Greitens TVAd Attack eng Praise  00:00:30 RP 
06/24/2022 vs Eric Greitens TVAd Attack eng Scandal  00:00:30 RP 
06/20/2022 Eric Greitens Web Only Ad Punditry eng Order your RINO Hunting Permit today!  00:00:38 RP 
02/03/2022 vs Eric Greitens TVAd Attack eng Eric Greitens & China  00:00:30 RP 
02/01/2022 vs Eric Schmitt TVAd Attack eng Mao Money  00:00:30 RP 
01/21/2022 Billy Long TVAd Biography eng Billy Long-Pro Trump Pro America  00:00:30 LEAPForward 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Dec 02, 2021 09:25am News Home Depot founder makes big move in Missouri Senate race  Article LEAPForward 

DISCUSSION
[View All
55
Previous Messages]
 
BEER:10271WSNJ ( 452.9941 points)
Tue, March 9, 2021 03:56:30 PM UTC0:00
A Nascar driver in the Senate. That would be cool lol

 
I:8766Pennsylvanian ( 404.5480 points)
Tue, March 9, 2021 06:13:10 PM UTC0:00
WSNJ: A Nascar driver in the Senate. That would be cool lol

Perhaps more pertinent to his interest in politics, he's supposedly a great-great-great grandson of Rutherford Hayes. [Link] In any event, I can't decide if racing stock cars is a better or a worse credential than coaching Auburn football. Guess it depends on the demographic -- though I bet there's a good bit of crossover.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4113.6006 points)
Tue, March 9, 2021 07:12:16 PM UTC0:00
Comments made by the Charlotte Observer upon his retirement; don't know how this reputation would translate to a GOP primary campaign in 2022:
He is a sharp guy, for sure. Edwards is also a shiny surface, one that reflects all light and is very hard to penetrate. He is affable, handsome and very self-aware in front of microphones. He knows reporters’ names and can talk around things he doesn’t want to talk about (his wife, his children, his exact future plans) with the expertness of a seasoned politician.

Edwards has always been a gracious, glib, guarded star. He has always been hard to read – Tony Stewart once referred to Edwards as “the Eddie Haskell of NASCAR.”
[Link]

I remember him being an incredibly health/fitness-conscious guy; maybe doing a backflip off his car will be a standard part of his stump speech?

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 472.6008 points)
Wed, March 10, 2021 11:58:36 PM UTC0:00
It's gonna be Smith or Greitens.

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Wed, March 17, 2021 07:04:47 PM UTC0:00
Ashcroft and Brunner websites registered 🤔

?s=21

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 7748.4790 points)
Thu, March 25, 2021 03:37:05 AM UTC0:00
I originally thought that even with the damaging report that Greitens would be able to make a comeback by painting the rape allegations as distortions by MSM and an overzealous "Democrat" prosecutor. Both play right into the hands of Republican voters who want punish "libs." This seems to be the deciding factor in alot of high profile Republican races.

Not so sure now. Hugh Hewitt came out pretty hard in his interview and Greitens didn't look sharp. I am not so sure now.

Also the Hawley / Greitens rivalry means Hawley will (is already) inject himself into this race.

?s=20

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 7748.4790 points)
Thu, March 25, 2021 03:59:20 AM UTC0:00
Hewitt thinks Trump will endorse Jason Smith.

 
BEER:10271WSNJ ( 452.9941 points)
Thu, March 25, 2021 03:29:35 PM UTC0:00
Not impressed with the republican bench here, and in PA/OH

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Tue, April 13, 2021 12:00:00 AM UTC0:00
Hopefully I'll live in Tucson with my girlfriend before Greitens represents this state again in any way

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -405.4800 points)
Tue, April 13, 2021 12:18:54 AM UTC0:00
I mean a Bi Blue Dog is better

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 7748.4790 points)
Tue, April 13, 2021 03:46:17 AM UTC0:00
The Remington Research polls were released to show that the Greitens poll is full of ****. But in this climate, he probably can still beat a divided field.

Schmitt, Wagner and Smith will probably need to decide which one challenges Greitens with the support of the others if there is to be no divided opposition and victory over Greitens. I'm sure they will find support in Greitens arch-enemy Josh Hawley. Hawley has been working hard to get Trump to endorse Smith.

As far as a blue dog goes, I doubt Billy Long will run.

 
D:1RP ( 5508.0200 points)
Wed, April 21, 2021 04:18:11 AM UTC0:00
Quite the field.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5260.3276 points)
Wed, April 21, 2021 06:33:14 AM UTC0:00
that McCloskey pic is probably changing if he runs

also if he runs, that's probably pretty bad news for Greitens because that would tap into the "RW grievance politics" part of the electorate that Greitens kinda needs to compete with candidates that'll outspend him

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 7748.4790 points)
Thu, May 13, 2021 06:08:49 AM UTC0:00
St Senator Bill Eigel is proposing leglisation to move the primary to June and create a runoff if no candidate gets 50%

?s=21

 
D:1989RBH ( 5260.3276 points)
Sat, May 15, 2021 01:04:21 AM UTC0:00
the bill wasn't passed by the House before they adjourned the session today. We'll see if it's part of any special session.

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Thu, May 20, 2021 01:22:50 AM UTC0:00
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: McCloskey's running.

[Link]

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 472.6008 points)
Thu, May 20, 2021 10:19:11 PM UTC0:00
Anything significant about the $190? I mean seems like an odd number.

It's below the $200 threshold, that would otherwise make my contribution pat of the searchable public record.

Basically, I don't need ANTIFA knocking on my door.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 7748.4790 points)
Thu, May 20, 2021 10:33:58 PM UTC0:00
Good strategy.

 
R:10538Southern_Moderate2 ( 62.9320 points)
Fri, May 21, 2021 03:23:10 AM UTC0:00
I'm pretty sure ANTIFA has better things to do

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Fri, June 11, 2021 04:58:13 AM UTC0:00
Will obviously be interesting to see what happens from here, now that Hartzler is in - do Long, Smith, and Wagner all run?

This is the worst possible timeline if Billy runs and wins btw.

 
Un:11182CyberPolitics ( 32.1374 points)
Fri, August 6, 2021 05:45:39 PM UTC0:00
Former Senior Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway endorsed Billy Long.

Citation: [Link]

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Tue, September 14, 2021 06:36:24 AM UTC0:00
Can't decide who I hate more between Long and Greitens, but I'm at the point where I might honestly vote in this primary if it means neither of them win.

 
LBT:10020PA Historian ( -200.1393 points)
Wed, September 15, 2021 04:53:05 AM UTC0:00
I forgot that Mark "Guns n Glory" McCloskey was running.

 
S:10358Charlotte K-A ( 90.2435 points)
Wed, September 15, 2021 07:34:52 AM UTC0:00
Don't worry, so did *checks notes* everyone else

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Mon, September 20, 2021 10:50:51 PM UTC0:00
Asking my right-wing daddy Hikikomori Blitzkrieg who he thinks I should vote for here

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