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  CA District 25 - Special Runoff
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > California > CA - District 25
OfficeHouse of Representatives
HonorificRepresentative - Abbr: Rep.
Type Special Election
Filing Deadline December 06, 2019 - 07:00pm Central
Polls Open May 12, 2020 - 09:00am Central
Polls Close May 12, 2020 - 10:00pm Central
Term Start May 13, 2020 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2021 - 12:00pm
Turnout 45.75% Registered 27.29% Total Population
ContributorRBH
Last ModifiedRBH June 23, 2020 11:53pm
Data Sources[Link]
[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2018
NameKatie Hill Votes133,209 (54.37%)
Term01/03/2019 - 11/01/2019 Margin21,396 (+8.73%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/03/2020
NameMike García Votes169,638 (50.05%)
Term01/03/2021 - 01/03/2023 Margin333 (+0.10%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Mar 03, 2020 CA District 25 - Special Election
Christy Smith
D 82,001R 79,859
Mar 03, 2020 CA District 25 - Open Primary
Christy Smith
R 77,642D 76,725NPA 2,183
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/07/2020 05/12/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Tossup 1 ------
Mike García 9 ------
Christy Smith 8 ------
Leaning Call: Mike García (50.00%)
Weighted Call: Mike García (71.66%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

03/15/2020 03/17/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Mike García St. Rep. Christy Smith  
PartyRepublican Democratic  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 95,667 (54.86%) 78,721 (45.14%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -16,946 (-9.72%)  
Predict Avg.50.68% 49.32%  
Cash On Hand 4/22 $336,399.50 4/22 $319,505.94  
Website [Website] [Website]  
Entry Date 12/06/2019 12/06/2019  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (1 from 1 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg42.79%-- 37.96%--  
1892 Polling 
03/15/20-03/17/20
43.00% -- 39.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements  


EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
04/29/2020 Christy Smith vs Mike García TVAd Contrast eng Here For All Of Us  00:00:30 RP 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
May 09, 2020 01:00pm News Democrats are on verge of the unthinkable: Losing a swing district in California  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
[View All
10
Previous Messages]
 
D:9362An_62190 ( 650.8763 points)
x2
Wed, May 13, 2020 09:31:55 PM UTC0:00
smith has conceded so i marked garcia as the winner.

 
D:6086Jason (13430.6523 points)
Wed, May 13, 2020 10:41:15 PM UTC0:00
Incompetent Dems constantly getting steamrolled.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -228.6384 points)
Wed, May 13, 2020 11:47:04 PM UTC0:00
Katie Hill campaigned on Medicare-For-All in a swing seat (as well as Porter, Rouda, Cisneros, and Levin), wins.

Christy Smith doesn't, loses.

HMMM 🤔

 
D:9362An_62190 ( 650.8763 points)
Thu, May 14, 2020 12:00:13 AM UTC0:00
i think republicans having a candidate that is a good fit for the district and smith making unforced errors caused her to lose not medicare for all.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Thu, May 14, 2020 12:48:17 AM UTC0:00
An_62190: i think republicans having a candidate that is a good fit for the district and smith making unforced errors caused her to lose not medicare for all.

Agreed. Garcia was a great candidate and a good fit. A friendly, relatable conservative. He had a hero's introduction to voters and doesn't carry the baggage that Knight did. I think he wins again in November and bucks national/state voting trends.

Also, I can't remember the issue, but I believe there was a state issue from the legislature that dragged Smith down in this election.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5686.1743 points)
Thu, May 14, 2020 02:33:35 AM UTC0:00
The 2018 Dem candidates who hadn't held an elective office had slightly different results than 2018 Dem candidates with a track record. Irregardless of specific stances.

 
D:9362An_62190 ( 650.8763 points)
Thu, May 14, 2020 03:19:41 AM UTC0:00
tbh garcia probably would be leading 60-40 right now if trump didnt endorse him. democrats didnt start paying attention until the last week, which created a huge gap in terms of ballots returned.