I thought we didn’t put endorsements for same party members unless they are uniquely different. Is Ami Bera endorsing the Democratic nominee out of the ordinary or am I missing something?

You are not missing something.

Feel free to remove the Ami endorsement if needed. :)

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1291804033368432641

IL-14 just keeps blowing my mind...

@RP Is IL-14 similar to GA-07, as in, it's racing to the left aftering being heavily GOP historically?

Both districts both have remaching canadates that are women

McCormick will probably win by 6-8%

It's a district Trump won by 7. It was the closest congressional race in the midterms. It's also worth wondering if McCormick's wife's donation to Marjorie Taylor Greene will have any impact.

@RP Is IL-14 similar to GA-07, as in, it's racing to the left aftering being heavily GOP historically? Pretty much. Chicago outer exurbs. Hultgren got over 65% in 2014 and nearly 60% in 2016 and 2012. Over a 35% swing to the Democrats from 2014 to 2018 with the same incumbent with no real scandals. And now listed as Safe D? It was meant to be a GOP vote sink in the 2010 redistricting.

McCormick may very well be throwing his election away with Greene winning the runoff.

Who really thinks a rematcher will win. Different case next door in the 6th since Karen Handel once held a seat I don’t consider that rematching

I thing Boudreaux will do worse than Biden Because of remaching

Does it make a difference to you that Mrs. Boudreaux is no longer running against an incumbent?

A small difference

Abraham Lincoln. He lost this first run for Congress. Lincoln lost the primary in 1844, won the primary and general in 1846, and lost re-election in 1847. Interestingly he also lost his first run for IL State Legislature in 1832 too and won in 1834. By today's standards, Lincoln would have been written off based on his long list of political losses and other personal and professional failures. Yet he is undeniably one of our greatest Presidents. I think we could probably make a long list of politicans who lost their first race and won the second or rematch. Margaret Thatcher, George Bush, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama all just upvoted by comment btw. For me this race is less about a rematch, and more about the dynamics and trends of the district, state, and nation.

Second runs are often successful - the second time a candidate starts with much higher voter awareness.

User avg is McCormick +0.33

User avg is McCormick +0.33 Now it's Bourdeaux +0.75 ;-)

Bourdeaux is going to win this. She's been at this for four years, barely lost last time and I would be stunned if she loses.