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  MO District 02
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Missouri > MO - District 02
OfficeHouse of Representatives
HonorificRepresentative - Abbr: Rep.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline March 31, 2020 - 05:00pm Central
Polls Open November 03, 2020 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close November 03, 2020 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
Turnout 72.28% Total Population
ContributorRBH
Last ModifiedRBH December 08, 2020 02:25pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/06/2018
NameAnn Wagner Votes192,477 (51.18%)
Term01/03/2019 - 01/03/2021 Margin14,866 (+3.95%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2022
NameAnn Wagner Votes173,277 (54.89%)
Term01/03/2023 - 01/03/2025 Margin37,382 (+11.84%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Aug 04, 2020 MO District 02 - D Primary
Jill Schupp
D 103,164
Aug 04, 2020 MO District 02 - R Primary
Ann Wagner
R 63,686
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
02/17/2019 11/03/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Ann Wagner 4 2 ----
Jill Schupp 12 ------
Tossup 1 ------
Leaning Call: Jill Schupp (57.14%)
Weighted Call: Jill Schupp (91.19%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

08/13/2020 11/02/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Rep. Ann Wagner St. Sen. Jill Schupp Martin Schulte (W) Gina Bufe  
PartyRepublican Democratic Libertarian Independent  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 233,157 (51.89%) 204,540 (45.52%) 11,647 (2.59%) 4 (0.00%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -28,617 (-6.37%) -221,510 (-49.30%) -233,153 (-51.89%)  
Predict Avg.49.60% 49.90% 1.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 6/30 $3,190,845.00 10/14 $475,551.22 $-- $--  
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site]  
Entry Date 00/00/2019 12/03/2019 02/25/2020 00/00/2020  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (3 from 3 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg47.61%-- 44.29%-- 0.50%-- 0.00%--  
Change Research 
10/30/20-11/02/20		 46.00% -- 46.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% --
Normington, Petts & Associates (D) 
09/10/20-09/14/20		 49.00% -- 49.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling 
08/13/20-08/14/20		 42.00% -- 45.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R Maryland Republican
 


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DISCUSSION
[View All
9
Previous Messages]
 
I:9775Natalie ( 107.9987 points)
x3
Sun, February 17, 2019 06:28:13 AM UTC0:00
This district's flipping next year
 
I:9775Natalie ( 107.9987 points)
Fri, February 21, 2020 03:26:03 AM UTC0:00
Natalie: This district's flipping next year
Nevermind
 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Fri, October 9, 2020 01:11:55 AM UTC0:00
Kind of surprising no independent polls here.
 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Tue, October 13, 2020 06:00:05 PM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: Kind of surprising no independent polls here.

Well, got my wish. Upset alert?
 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4590.4668 points)
Tue, October 13, 2020 06:30:19 PM UTC0:00
Certainly a race to watch on Election Night/Week. Does RBH have any insight?

Anyone know how this district voted in the 2018 Senate race?
 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
Tue, October 13, 2020 07:32:51 PM UTC0:00
This district has been a target for a few cycles, so not horribly unexpected, but wow - that margin...
 
D:1989RBH ( 5686.1743 points)
x2
Tue, October 13, 2020 10:36:38 PM UTC0:00
SLU withdrew that 51/42 polling result because it was a sample size of 115.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Wed, October 14, 2020 12:53:04 AM UTC0:00
RBH: SLU withdrew that 51/42 polling result because it was a sample size of 115.

Well hopefully it will prompt at least some internals to be released if not indy poll.
 
D:1989RBH ( 5686.1743 points)
Wed, October 14, 2020 01:15:58 AM UTC0:00
I was surprised today when Nate Cohn tweeted that Missouri was one of the states without a single NYT/Siena poll in 2018/20, although he admitted that they probably should have polled Indiana/Missouri during 2018

But once NYT/Siena gets done with polling Kansas, there's a handful of congressional districts that would have interesting polls.. like how actually polling the Underwood race kinda put that on radars