Watching Moonbeam Murphy debate Jack tonight.

There was a dollop of wishful thinking associated with my initial prediction Youngkin would prevail here. But I now really think it's going to happen.

Polls are good but not promising for Youngkin, so we shall see

Yeah, the same polling Establishment that claimed Biden was going to win by a dozen points, and Ohio and Iowa were too close to call. We'll see.

Yeah, the same polling Establishment that claimed Biden was going to win by a dozen points, and Ohio and Iowa were too close to call. We'll see. Apples to oranges comparison. Virginia polls have actually been quite accurate, if not slightly republican leaning, for several years.

Apples to oranges comparison. Virginia polls have actually been quite accurate, if not slightly republican leaning, for several years. Accurate in showing that Dems steal elections!

Apples to oranges comparison. Virginia polls have actually been quite accurate, if not slightly republican leaning, for several years. Accurate in showing that Dems steal elections! VBM polls

I'm totally obsessed with this out-of-state election, and I'm literally going to be overseas on Election Day. As problems go, it's a good one to have.

Upsets happen, but the polls in 2017 weren't predicting a 9 point win for Norhtam. Don't get your lil heart set on your fantasy coming true.

In 2017, VA voters were pissed at Trump. Now they're pissed at Biden. If you have some rationale to explain how this won't be a close race, please feel free to enunciate it. It's going to be a close race. And close races, rather by definition, can go either way.

In 2013/14, I assume you'd think voters were pissed at Obama. McAuliffee won. Not by 9 points and it was close, but he won. VA 2021 isn't the VA of 1993, hell it's not even the VA of 2009! I haven't seen anything to indicate Youngkin could win NoVA voters, even more moderate ones in Prince William or Loudon Counties. If this comes down to a contest of GOP voters being "pissed" vs Democratic leaning voters turning out, I give the edge to McAuliffe.

McAuliffe had a decently big lead going into election day 2013 and won by 2... so...

McAuliffe had a decently big lead going into election day 2013 and won by 2... so... And Northam was essentially tied and won by 9. I seem to have misremembered Virginia polls being fairly reliable, because it seems that in gubernatorial elections they have been pretty off while being pretty spot on for presidential elections.

Virginia's assortment of small colleges conducting polls over 3 week periods need to release a poll soon. In reputable polls? I thought they were all tightish in the last days. PPP had Mac by 7 a week before 2013 Quinnipiac had Mac by 6 Then he won by 2 1/2. The closest poll was Emerson College, a few years before they started flooding the zone with even more polls. Just imagine how wacky the polls could be if they just included Blanding, who will be listed on the ballot as "Princess L. Blanding - LP" so she'll get a few votes from people who think LP stands for Libertarian Party

I doubt Youngkin can win. There’s no doubt the margin will be closer than previous years, the dynamics of this race are extremely different, but the polls seem to bear out a McAliffe victory.

Had the opportunity to promote the Princess Blanding campaign on a panel alongside a former Green candidate (Jeff Staples) and another former Libertarian candidate (Pete Wells). Show was hosted by 3-time Virginia Beach City Council candidate Conrad Schesventer. I also will have an opportunity to come back on on Election Day and discuss the election returns CNN style. Kind of excited to be back promoting politics again. https://youtu.be/7m0buamuJWI

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453852175046783029?s=20

Predictions? UPDATED

Predictions? UPDATED Youngkin will win. Ds will win AG and Lt. Gov. There is a theory that there is a certain # of voters who don't want to give a Governor a second term in this one-term governor state.

Desperate McAuliffe stages a Charlottesville rally at A Youngkin rally.

how many more election cycles until we get an idea about what happens with late polling once a percentage of the electorate has already voted early? The NYT/Siena polls from 2018 were pretty informative for the whole matter of -polling response rate. Right now, it's easier now than ever before to be able to not answer your phone for any stranger.

Prediction of total votes cast in the VA Gov Race

In the California recall, we saw that "enthusiasm" isn't necessarily indicative of whether or not people will vote. I certainly have no on-the-ground sense with Virginia, but with Democrats increasingly reliant upon high propensity (suburban) voters, McAuliffe may outperform the polls.

with Democrats increasingly reliant upon high propensity (suburban) voters, McAuliffe may outperform the polls. Assuming those suburban voters, who have a substantial amount of ex-Republicans who were turned off by Trump, don't currently consider themselves independents since Youngkin has a substantial lead with independents.

Youngkin has a lot of momentum and is polling right where he needs to be. I’m skeptical, but I’ll bite the bullet and say he wins