Sadly, the Virginia Republican Party is all out of John Warners.

Elected officials who by law serve only one term don't bother worrying about re-election, and don't give damn about popularity plunges - they'll trudge on to the end with nothing to lose (VA's current governor is case in point). To me, that's undemocratic. But the system's not going to change. The people of VA have to bathe in the hot water they poured for themselves. Expect rotating chairs in 2021 - and that new chair is Gillepsie's for the taking, if he wants it (and I don't know why he'd want it. He'll be pounded like raw meat for the schnitzel).

To be honest, if Kirk Cox wins reelection in 2019, he’s probably the best candidate for 2021. He isn’t far-right or scandal plagued.

Who's really likely to run here on the GOP side ?

Comstock, Scott Taylor imo

Now that Chase announced her candidacy, who will Trump back in the GOP primary ?

Denver Riggleman announced he is forming an exploratory committee as an "Independent minded Republican". Should we add him as a prospective candidate in this race? https://twitter.com/VaPoliticalNews/status/1302216277394628609

I think so, but it probably means he's running as a an Independent imho. Can't see how he'll win a Virginia Republican Primary unless they change they rules. He probably knows that too. Then again, maybe this is a pitch for like minded Republicans to change the rules. The rules for his renomination so favored his opponent.

Riggleman can't win Virginia. He lost a GOP nomination and isn't Conservative enough for this current party.

Cox is likely the only candidate that can win in the General but the primary electorate may not think he is conservative enough.

Riggleman can't win Virginia. He lost a GOP nomination and isn't Conservative enough for this current party. I think he could win a general election. But, like Cox, I don't think either can win the primary.

If both Riggleman and Chase run as independents there is no hope for the Republican ticket in Virginia next year even if both pull only single digits in the general election. Not quite sure why VA GOP is so enthusiastic about the convention concept when the results have been mixed at best and cost them elections at its worst. Let the voters decide in a primary.

Amanda Chase reversed courses a few days ago, seeking GOP nomination again. https://www.wric.com/news/politics/reversing-course-amanda-chase-will-seek-gop-nomination-for-virginia-governor/

Could Chase win a Republican convention? 20% is far from 50%, but I guess what I've learned about Va GOP Politics it really comes down to who is handling credentials for the convention.

Could Chase win a Republican convention? 20% is far from 50%, but I guess what I've learned about Va GOP Politics it really comes down to who is handling credentials for the convention. I've heard multiple perspectives on the convention. One point is that Denver Riggelman's loss is proof conventions are more likely to elect a fringe candidate. The other side says that a convention is better for beating Chase due to the 50% threshold, as opposed to Chase winning a plurality in a primary. I'd lean towards that second perspective, since Riggelman was in a one-on-one matchup so it isn't really comparable.

Thats a great point Kyle. I've been wondering what is better for Republicans in VA - primary of convention. Honestly I see both sides of the argument. Personally I'd like to see someone like Snyder or Youngkin win because they are more aligned with my ideas of the Republican Party. But the angry Republicans are the ones that seem to be winning both primaries and conventions over ideas Republicans these days so I'm not so sure it really makes a difference.

Drive-thru convention in a parking lot at Liberty University; ranked choice voting. https://richmond.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/state-gop-leaders-opt-for-drive-up-convention-at-liberty-university-to-nominate-candidates/article_d4ae16f9-2c44-5872-8a1d-5d2ba18fef62.html Liberty University has not yet agreed. http://twitter.com/RichChumney/status/1364652129328242690

Anyone want to handicap this? My take. 1. Republicans created convention rules to make it difficult for Amanda Chase to win. Ergo the threats to run as Independent if she loses. She is the most Trumpy Republican but probably too far to the right to be competitive in a fall election or so Republican powerbrokers believe. 2. Pete Snyder is the preferred candidate of Republican powerbrokers due to his perceived electability and why the convention rules are being structured to favor him (or so Chase is claiming.) But he might not be Trumpy enough for all convention delegates which will include a lot of the passionate Trump base. 3. Kirk Cox might be the compromise between the Chase and Snyder voters and come out on top. Ultimately I'm not confident enough in that logic to commit to a lean in this race. Seems like it could go to any of the top 5 listed here.

I like Cox as far as I can see he can be competitive. I just don’t see McAuliffe losing.

https://twitter.com/amandachaseva/status/1391150084377677826?s=21

https://twitter.com/petesnyder/status/1391935411270864898?s=20 pete snyder has conceded

Youngkin came on strong towards the end of this campaign. A stronger candidate that Chase, maybe not as strong as Snyder imho. I wonder if Chase will concede or fight on in the general.