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  UK House of Commons - Popular Vote
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United Kingdom > House of Commons > Popular Vote
OfficeHouse of Commons
HonorificHouse of Commons - Abbr: House of Commons
Type Control Indicator
Filing Deadline November 14, 2019 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open December 12, 2019 - 01:00am Central
Polls Close December 12, 2019 - 04:00pm Central
Term Start December 19, 2019 - 03:00am
Term End July 04, 2024 - 03:00am
ContributorIndyGeorgia
Last ModifiedIndyGeorgia June 03, 2024 03:54pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description [Link]
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
12/10/2018 12/12/2019
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Conservative Party 3 1 2 --
Liberal Democrats 2 ------
Labour Party 1 1 ----
Leaning Call: Conservative Party (68.75%)
Weighted Call: Conservative Party (100.43%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

06/10/2017 12/11/2019

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Conservative Party Labour Party Liberal Democrats Scottish National Party Green Party of England & Wales The Brexit Party Others
PartyConservative Labour Liberal Democrats Scottish National Green Brexit Independent
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes 13,966,451 (43.81%) 10,269,076 (32.21%) 3,696,423 (11.60%) 1,242,380 (3.90%) 865,697 (2.72%) 642,323 (2.02%) 371,727 (1.17%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -3,697,375 (-11.60%) -10,270,028 (-32.22%) -12,724,071 (-39.91%) -13,100,754 (-41.10%) -13,324,128 (-41.80%) -13,594,724 (-42.65%)
Predict Avg.37.25% 33.10% 15.90% 3.10% 3.10% 11.20% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website]
Entry Date 00/00/2017 00/00/2017 00/00/2017 00/00/2017 00/00/2017 -- 11/14/2019
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (94 from 13 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg43.15%-- 31.44%-- 11.69%-- 3.54%-- 2.32%-- 0.72%-- 0.00%--
Opinium 
12/10/19-12/11/19
45.00% 2.0 33.00% 5.0 12.00% -- 4.00% 1.0 2.00% 1.0 2.00% 1.0 0.00% --
Panelbase 
12/10/19-12/11/19
43.00% 3.0 34.00% 4.0 11.00% 4.0 4.00% -- 3.00% -- 4.00% 4.0 0.00% --
Survation 
12/10/19-12/11/19
45.00% 13.0 34.00% 10.0 9.00% 12.0 4.00% -- 3.00% 1.0 3.00% 10.0 0.00% --
Savanta 
12/09/19-12/10/19
41.00% 14.0 36.00% 9.0 12.00% 8.0 4.00% -- 2.00% -- 3.00% 14.0 0.00% --
Deltapoll 
12/05/19-12/07/19
44.00% 1.0 33.00% 3.0 11.00% 5.0 4.00% -- 2.00% 1.0 3.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
12/05/19-12/06/19
43.00% -- 33.00% 1.0 13.00% -- 4.00% -- 3.00% 1.0 3.00% 1.0 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Democratic Unionist Party Sinn Féin Plaid Cymru Social Democratic and Labour Party Ulster Unionist Party UK Independence Party Change UK – The Independent Group
PartyDemocratic Unionist Sinn Féin Plaid Cymru Social Democratic and Labour Ulster Unionist UK Independence Independent Group for Change
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes 244,127 (0.77%) 181,853 (0.57%) 153,265 (0.48%) 118,737 (0.37%) 93,123 (0.29%) 22,817 (0.07%) 10,006 (0.03%)
Margin-13,722,324 (-43.05%) -13,784,598 (-43.24%) -13,813,186 (-43.33%) -13,847,714 (-43.44%) -13,873,328 (-43.52%) -13,943,634 (-43.74%) -13,956,445 (-43.78%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 1.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website]
Entry Date -- -- 00/00/2017 -- -- 00/00/2017 --
MATCHUP POLLS (94 from 13 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.14%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.35%-- 0.03%--
Opinium 
12/10/19-12/11/19
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Panelbase 
12/10/19-12/11/19
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survation 
12/10/19-12/11/19
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Savanta 
12/09/19-12/10/19
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Deltapoll 
12/05/19-12/07/19
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
12/05/19-12/06/19
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
VIEW 1 MORE CANDIDATES


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NEWS
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Nov 11, 2019 04:50am Amusing 14 big brains on Brexit  Article RP 

DISCUSSION
[View All
23
Previous Messages]
 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2181 points)
Thu, May 30, 2019 11:08:30 PM UTC0:00
The first time that the Lib Dems have lead a poll since 2010. Also the first time that the two main British parties haven't lead a general election poll since...probably ever? [Link]

Also worth noting: Among remain voters, Lib Dems lead with 41% compared to Labour's 27%, Tories' 11%, and Greens 10. 46% of Leave voters support Brexit Party, followed by Tories at 30%, and Labour at 10%. Interestingly, UKIP is polling at 2% among Leave voters, which shows just how irrelevant they are without Farage.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 7748.4790 points)
Fri, May 31, 2019 03:35:47 AM UTC0:00
If this polling continues to election day, it will genuinely be a cliffhanger election night. With this mucg shifting among voters many safe Labour and Tory seats will be in play.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4953.9048 points)
Fri, May 31, 2019 05:24:47 AM UTC0:00
The Brexit Party's reason for existence will disappear before 2022, so the Labour and (especially) Conservative parties will probably get alot of supporters back.

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Fri, May 31, 2019 04:53:54 PM UTC0:00
There could be a new election though before Brexit happens

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2181 points)
Sat, June 1, 2019 09:21:15 PM UTC0:00
Here's the first general election poll showing Brexit Party with a lead:


I'm not sure if UK voters will swing back to the two main parties when campaigning starts, but the first two post-European election polls point to a very uncertain result for the next election.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 7748.4790 points)
Sat, November 9, 2019 09:34:42 PM UTC0:00
Last time Labour got less than 25% of the vote in a UK General Election was over 100 years ago in 1918.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4113.6006 points)
Sat, November 9, 2019 10:11:52 PM UTC0:00
Labour losing ground in Wales to the Tories, losing ground in Scotland to the SNP, losing ground in London to the Lib Dems, and losing ground in the North East to the Brexit Party. However, Corbyn and Labour need those last three parties to siphon votes away from or beat the Tories in difficult regions for Labour (Lib Dems in the South West, SNP in northern Scotland, and Brexit in rural areas) to deny the Tories a majority.

And even if THAT happens, Labour would still need to build a majority with the SNP who wants an independence referendum and the Lib Dems who have refused to put Corbyn in Number 10.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 7748.4790 points)
Sat, November 9, 2019 10:53:54 PM UTC0:00
Add to that list that moderate Labour MPs and voters are less than enthused by Corbyn or simply feel not wanted in the party. They may have not have been overly excited in 2017 but still voted for him. This year there is an exodus.

I’ll still contend that Labour has the least attractive and most confusing postion on a post-referendum Brexit in an election that will be centered on Brexit. Its because of this that support is bleeding to the Brexit Party, SNP and Lib Dems which all have very clear unambiguous positions.

Still, there is about a month left before election day so anything can happen in this election which will be anything but predictable.

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Mon, November 11, 2019 12:44:50 AM UTC0:00
I remain more optimistic than ever that Corbyn will pull this off

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4113.6006 points)
Mon, November 11, 2019 12:53:50 AM UTC0:00
One thing Corbyn has going for him is that the Tories are trying to pick off seats in Labour heartlands (and historically unfriendly to Conservatives) largely on Brexit. If other issues pop up in the campaign that the public and media begin to focus on, Corbyn could put Boris on the defensive. It's what happened in 2017 and Corbyn hopes it happens again.

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
x2
Mon, November 11, 2019 07:51:10 PM UTC0:00
Nigel Farage has announced that the Brexit Party will not be running candidates in the 317 seats the Tories won in 2017. RIP Labour