Dunn Dunn DUUUNNN

Johnson would split the republican vote tbh

I agree. I can't see the Democratic base in New Mexico breaking off in any significant numbers for Johnson.

Dodo-be-do Johnson is sure to synch up enthusiasm and energy to the dullest race in the Union. It fuel-injects the unused spark plug socket in cipher Heinrich's pants. Gary just might take it. 50-50, in my view.

It's impossible for Johnson to win 50-50 win there is a Republican in the race. That aside, Johnson has no chance at all.

I think the only scenario by which this gets interesting is if the Republican drops out of the race, and that seems unlikely.

so, there's multiple polling firms willing to do "Libertarian vs Dem/Rep one on one" polls? (I recall that the NYS Libertarian had some polls like that, and that was an idea to try and game the requirements to get Johnson into debates in 2016)

Rand Paul has just endorsed Gary Johnson. This should make things even more interesting. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-mexico/articles/2018-08-28/sen-rand-paul-backs-libertarian-senate-candidate

spicy

Best chance to get another Ventura upset. https://epluribusunumyoutube.weebly.com/endorsements.html

Heinrich will survive.

What does everyone think? Could Johnson pull a Jesse Ventura-style upset? He's polling about the same as Ventura was when he won in Minnesota back in '98.

I'm not sure, but I would be so happy if he did. I don't agree with him on a lot of issues, but we need an independent voice in the senate.

It's possible, If Heinrich pulls the same mistake that Skip Humphrey did back in '98. Skip and the Democratic-Farmer-Labor party saw how Ventura was polling and decided that they will use him to spoil the Republican Candidate Norm Coleman and guarantee them the win. They did this by refusing to debate Coleman unless Ventura was included into the debate, due to the fact Ventura was fiscally conservative they thought he'd steal votes from Coleman but SURPRISE, Ventura won. If Johnson Debates them He's guaranteed the win, if not ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

PA Historian: I do NOT see Johnson pulling a Jesse Ventura here. He's just too damn weird.

... I'm guessing you know nothing about Jesse Ventura?

I see Johnson pulling ahead of Rich, but not Heinrich. There will be a point in October where libertarian and conservative voters look for the most viable alternative to Heinrich. That is Johnson and Rich will tail off. Despite the current poll numbers, I’d be surprised if Heinrich finishes below 50%. Maybe something like: Heinrich 50% Johnson 35% Rich 15%

Winning a state race and winning a federal race are two different things. If Johnson was to start polling anywhere close to winning the question of who he would caucus with would arise and that would put him at odds with one part of the coalition of voters he needs to win.

He would of course have the option of not caucusing with either.

The fundamentals & determining factors are favoring Heinrich since 2018 could be a Blue Wave (depending on which polling surveys you believe).

Third parties are always a mystery factor and its hard to gauge how their voting base will turn out.

Johnson could be down 20 on election day, or he could win. I see both as real possibilities.

the suspense in my eyes: does Johnson finish ahead of Rich and still not win any counties? with Rich winning typically Republican counties in Eastern NM and Johnson running ahead of Rich in the most populated counties to put him in 2nd place. Also worth noting that Johnson's re-election as Governor was in 1998, so there'll be a portion of the electorate that never had a chance to vote for him either due to age or due to not living in New Mexico in 1998.

This will be, by far, the most watched race on election night I think.

Most watched by Libertarians, yes. Everyone else, not so much.