Nice call, Sabato: https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1853560130496765984

Isn't there a safe flip to D in Alabama like there is in Louisiana?

To support the theory that the Senate and House both have a strong chance to flip it has been confirmed that the Secret Service has increased protection to Grassley and Jeffries in the event that they become President Pro Tempore-elect and Speaker-elect.

Isn't there a safe flip to D in Alabama like there is in Louisiana? Seems like he missed it for whatever reason. Or is galaxy-brained and we're in for a huge upset.

Just went through all House seats on a map and my final house prediction is 220 D - 215 R

My last minute tally is 219 D - 216 R.

Republicans have won 204 seats and the Democrats have won 187. There are currently 44 House races that have yet to be called. If the Republicans hold the seats in which they are currently leading and the Democrats hold the seats in which they are currently leading, Republicans would have 223 seats to the Democrats' 212. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/elections/results-house-races-tracker.html

I'm tracking races in AK, AZ, CA, CO, and OR. AK-AL: Begich is below 50%, so if the race stays that way the result will depend on reallocation of Howe votes to their second choice. (R lead but who knows) AZ-01: Incremental returns will not help the Democrat: Schweikert will hold on. (R hold) AZ-06: Although Engel is nominally ahead at the moment, there are a ton of votes left to count in Cochise County, so Ciscomani should win. (R hold) CA-09: The remaining votes should increase Harder's lead (D hold) CA-13: Although Gray gained a few votes in the last batch that reported, he would need to do much better in the last ballots in each county than he has done to date to win. (R hold) CA-21: Costa's lead should increase as the votes are counted (D hold) CA-27: The last batch of ballots to be counted came in heavily for Whitesides. If that continues he will overtake Garcia, who is currently leading. (D flip) CA-34: This race is between 2 Democrats so although it has not been called it is a D hold. CA-39: This is all in one county and Takano is well ahead. (D hold) CA-41: This is all in one county and the last batch of ballots increased Calvert's lead (R hold) CA-45: The last batch of ballots came in strong for Tran, but even at that rate he will fall short (R hold) CA-47: I had passed this off as a win for Baugh (who is leading) but the last batch of ballots must have come in strong for Min since he is 616 votes back. Keep an eye on this one for a lead change and potential D hold. CA-49: Levin increased his lead in the last batch and based on county returns his lead should increase. D hold. CO-8: Caraveo's lead increased in the last batch of ballots. County results suggest her lead will decrease but she will hang on. (D hold) OR-5: Bynum expanded her lead in the last batch of ballots, and the remaining vote should look pretty neutral. (D flip)

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is looking good in her race - I don't expect WA-3 to be close in the end. (D hold)

As of today, the uncalled House races per NY Times. Note that some of these races have been called by others or their opponents have conceded. If all go as they currently stand the House will be R-222 - D-213 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/elections/results-house-races-tracker.html CA-22 (R) Leans (R) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006472 AK-AL (D) Leans (R) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006430 CA-41 (R) Leans (R) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006501 CA-13 (R) Leans (R) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006455 CA-45 (R) Leans (R) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006511 AZ-06 (R) Leans (R) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006411 CO-08 (D) Leans (R) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=997188 IA-01 (R) Leans (R) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1017329 ME-02 (D) Leans (D) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1032267 OH-09 (D) Leans (D) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1024438 CA-21 (D) Leans (D) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006471 CA-47 (D) Leans (D) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006515 CA-27 (R) Leans (D) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006482 OR-05 (R) Leans (D) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1020668 CA-09 (D) Leans (D) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006444 CA-49 (D) Leans (D) https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006518

Also WA-04 is not yet called, but two Republicans are in the run-off. https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1007658

Republicans officially unofficially hold the House according to DDHQ, might be an even smaller GOP majority than last time. Subpar results to say the least.

If today's big dump of counted ballots is representative of what's left, Tran should overtake Steel and flip this one Democratic. There is some doubt about CA-13, but the rest of the California races should be holds for the incumbent party. Agreed. Also looks like based on my list above the AP has called a few races. Min beat Baugh in CA-47. Levin wins CA-49, Valdao in CA-22, Evans beat Caraveo in CO-08 (We knew this already) . Times/AP have the house at 216-207 now. Really comes down to Steel and Duarte races to determine if this is a 222-213 House or a 220-215 House. And considering there are 4 House members gone to cabinet. Will be real tight considering Newhouse from Washington and Valadao from California voted to impeach Trump.

And considering there are 4 House members gone to cabinet. Will be real tight considering Newhouse from Washington and Valadao from California voted to impeach Trump. Just out of curiosity, which 4 House members have gone to cabinet? I only see Stefanik and Waltz, but might be missing some latest news!

Just out of curiosity, which 4 House members have gone to cabinet? I only see Stefanik and Waltz, but might be missing some latest news! No I think you are right. Only 2 so far, but With Rubio and Vance from Senate gone there is a potential for additional shakeup from the House in selecting someone from the House to go fill those Senate seats.

Now GOP are down by 3. GOP needs 220 GOP Reps, to still have GOP Speaker.

Last 4 races uncalled by the AP AK-AL R Leading https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006430 CA-13 R Leading https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006455 IA-01 R Leading https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1017329 CA-45 D Leading https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1006511

The Republicans certainly won Alaska and Iowa 1.