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  UK Parliament - Northern Ireland
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United Kingdom > Northern Ireland > Northern Ireland
OfficeParliament
HonorificMember of Parliament - Abbr: MP
Type Control Indicator
Filing Deadline June 07, 2024 - 10:00am Central
Polls Open July 04, 2024 - 01:00am Central
Polls Close July 04, 2024 - 04:00pm Central
Term Start July 05, 2024 - 12:00am
Term End July 05, 2029 - 12:00pm
ContributorIndyGeorgia
Last ModifiedIndyGeorgia September 27, 2024 08:26pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
06/29/2024 07/04/2024
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Sinn Féin 3 ------
Leaning Call: Sinn Féin (100.00%)
Weighted Call: Sinn Féin (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

05/10/2024 06/25/2024

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Sinn Féin (I) Democratic Unionist Party Alliance Party of Northern Ireland Ulster Unionist Party Social Democratic and Labour Party Traditional Unionist Voice Independents
PartySinn Féin Democratic Unionist Alliance Ulster Unionist Social Democratic and Labour Traditional Unionist Voice Independent
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 210,891 (27.04%) 172,058 (22.06%) 117,191 (15.03%) 94,779 (12.15%) 86,861 (11.14%) 48,685 (6.24%) 23,602 (3.03%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -38,833 (-4.98%) -93,700 (-12.02%) -116,112 (-14.89%) -124,030 (-15.90%) -162,206 (-20.80%) -187,289 (-24.02%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website
Entry Date -- -- -- -- -- -- 06/07/2024
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (3 from 1 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg23.52%-- 22.88%-- 18.06%-- 9.86%-- 12.36%-- 4.59%-- 0.00%--
LucidTalk 
06/24/24-06/25/24		 23.00% 1.0 21.00% -- 18.00% 1.0 13.00% 1.0 14.00% 1.0 4.00% 1.0 0.00% --
LucidTalk 
06/08/24-06/10/24		 24.00% 2.0 21.00% 1.0 17.00% 2.0 12.00% 1.0 13.00% 3.0 5.00% 3.0 0.00% --
LucidTalk 
05/10/24-05/13/24		 26.00% -- 20.00% -- 15.00% -- 13.00% -- 10.00% -- 8.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
RSF KeystonePopulist
I E Pluribus Unum
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Green Party of Northern Ireland People Before Profit Alliance Aontú Cross-Community Labour Alternative Northern Ireland Conservatives  
PartyGreen NI People Before Profit Aontú Cross-Community Labour Alternative Conservative  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 8,692 (1.12%) 8,438 (1.08%) 7,466 (0.96%) 624 (0.08%) 553 (0.07%)  
Margin-202,199 (-25.93%) -202,453 (-25.96%) -203,425 (-26.09%) -210,267 (-26.96%) -210,338 (-26.97%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $--  
Website [Website]  
Entry Date -- -- -- 06/07/2024 06/07/2024  
MATCHUP POLLS (3 from 1 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.52%-- 0.73%-- 0.92%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
LucidTalk 
06/24/24-06/25/24		 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
LucidTalk 
06/08/24-06/10/24		 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 1.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
LucidTalk 
05/10/24-05/13/24		 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 


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DISCUSSION
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8
Previous Messages]
 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 7748.4790 points)
Thu, July 4, 2024 02:18:29 AM UTC0:00
You have to wonder if this might be the last election in Northern Ireland at least as we know it now. With the Irish Nationalist parties growing in Strength, and Starmer promising changes to the existing agreement. How far will Starmer go?

 
For:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -631.8989 points)
Thu, July 4, 2024 04:14:37 AM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: Personally for me its not if but when Ireland is United again.

Between Sinn Fein's probable victory, Labour's probable victory and King Charles being somewhat sympathetic to Irish reunification, it'll probably happen within the next decade I'd bet.
 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 4113.6006 points)
Thu, July 4, 2024 07:07:20 PM UTC0:00
Would Naomi Long resign her position in Stormont as MLA and Justice Minister?