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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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US Senate Control
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Parents |
> United States > U.S. Senate
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Office | Senate |
Honorific | Senator - Abbr: Sen. |
Type | Control Indicator |
Filing Deadline | 00, 2024 - 12:00pm Central |
Polls Open | November 05, 2024 - 12:00am Central |
Polls Close | November 05, 2024 - 12:00pm Central |
Term Start | January 03, 2025 - 12:00am |
Term End | January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm |
Contributor | BrentinCO |
Last Modified | BrentinCO February 10, 2025 09:02am |
Data Sources | [Link] |
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DISCUSSION |
[View All 16 Previous Messages] |
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R:250 | Mr. Politics ( 190.1725 points)
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Mon, October 14, 2024 04:54:03 PM UTC0:00
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Batch of supposedly leaked Republican internal polls: https://static.politico.com/79/e9/eaf701084e77be9afaa85356e3b8/slf-october-memo.pdf
The Notes section of each race makes me think these may be legitimate internal polls.
Jason: Batch of supposedly leaked Republican internal polls: [Link]
The Notes section of each race makes me think these may be legitimate internal polls.
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These are either legit, or someone was paid to fabricate a forgery. Occam's Razor suggests the former, I think.
These are either legit, or someone was paid to fabricate a forgery. Occam's Razor suggests the former, I think.
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I:11727 | LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
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Mon, November 11, 2024 01:09:52 AM UTC0:00
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There will be 13 new faces in the U.S Senate.
There will be 13 new faces in the U.S Senate.
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One thing I’m personally fascinated by is “what if”. Republicans getting to 53 is a good night, there majority does not need to theoretically be dictated by Collins and Murkowski. But Republicans came very close to a senate majority not seen since Obama 08. Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona get you to 57. I’m going to be generous and throw Maryland into that and say number 58 - a well known Maryland political expert made the case outlining that had Democrats not spent tens of millions of dollars attacking Hogan, Hogan very well could have prevailed. Personally, a 57-58 seat Republican Majority would be very difficult to dislodge anytime soon. Hell, a 53 seat Republican majority is going to be difficult to dislodge. Looking at 2026, both sides have a few pickup potentials. I think after Tuesday night, Democrats can write off Texas. Personally, I would take Iowa off the table too - even as a few on here got so excited about Iowa flipping. What does that leave… North Carolina and Maine. Republicans have a few pickup potentials too.. Georgia if Kemp runs, I would actually initially mark him the slightest favorite. Michigan, where the 2018 race against Stabenow was highly competitive for a blue wave. New Hampshire would be nice if Sununu ran.
And of course, both sides will probably make a seat competitive that no one is looking at right now. Who will be the 2026 Republican Senator to struggle against an Independent?
2024 is over - now I’m excited for 2026! :)
One thing I’m personally fascinated by is “what if”. Republicans getting to 53 is a good night, there majority does not need to theoretically be dictated by Collins and Murkowski. But Republicans came very close to a senate majority not seen since Obama 08. Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona get you to 57. I’m going to be generous and throw Maryland into that and say number 58 - a well known Maryland political expert made the case outlining that had Democrats not spent tens of millions of dollars attacking Hogan, Hogan very well could have prevailed. Personally, a 57-58 seat Republican Majority would be very difficult to dislodge anytime soon. Hell, a 53 seat Republican majority is going to be difficult to dislodge. Looking at 2026, both sides have a few pickup potentials. I think after Tuesday night, Democrats can write off Texas. Personally, I would take Iowa off the table too - even as a few on here got so excited about Iowa flipping. What does that leave… North Carolina and Maine. Republicans have a few pickup potentials too.. Georgia if Kemp runs, I would actually initially mark him the slightest favorite. Michigan, where the 2018 race against Stabenow was highly competitive for a blue wave. New Hampshire would be nice if Sununu ran.
And of course, both sides will probably make a seat competitive that no one is looking at right now. Who will be the 2026 Republican Senator to struggle against an Independent?
2024 is over - now I’m excited for 2026! :)
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D:6086 | Jason (13430.6523 points)
 x2
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Mon, November 11, 2024 05:52:34 PM UTC0:00
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Democrats are going to have to target red states over the next several cycles. They don't have any other choice.
Democrats are going to have to target red states over the next several cycles. They don't have any other choice.
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R:250 | Mr. Politics ( 190.1725 points)
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Mon, November 11, 2024 08:07:09 PM UTC0:00
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Democrats are going to have to target red states over the next several cycles. They don't have any other choice.
Looking ahead to potential 2026 competitive Senate Races--
GOP held seats and Presidential result:
Maine: D +7
North Carolina: R +3
Ohio Special: R +11
Iowa: R +13
Texas: R +14
Alaska: R +15
Kansas: R +16
Dem-held seats ranked by 2024 result:
Georgia: R +2
Michigan: R +1
New Hampshire: D +3
Minnesota: D +4
New Jersey: D +5
Virginia: D +5
New Mexico: D +6
Maine will be the big target and probably the Ohio special. GOP will be on defense but mostly on friendly territory.
Jason: Democrats are going to have to target red states over the next several cycles. They don't have any other choice.
Looking ahead to potential 2026 competitive Senate Races--
GOP held seats and Presidential result:
Maine: D +7
North Carolina: R +3
Ohio Special: R +11
Iowa: R +13
Texas: R +14
Alaska: R +15
Kansas: R +16
Dem-held seats ranked by 2024 result:
Georgia: R +2
Michigan: R +1
New Hampshire: D +3
Minnesota: D +4
New Jersey: D +5
Virginia: D +5
New Mexico: D +6
Maine will be the big target and probably the Ohio special. GOP will be on defense but mostly on friendly territory.
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I:11727 | LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
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Mon, November 11, 2024 11:56:32 PM UTC0:00
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It's a good thing to see new faces the start of every Congress. Change in leadership and membership is good. The American people does not benefit from having career politicians.
I support not just term limits for Congress, but also maximum age limits for Congress. A maximum 2 elected terms in the U.S Senate and maximum 6 terms in the U.S House would be fair. 75 years old and then you're ineligible to seek re-election would be fair too.
It's a good thing to see new faces the start of every Congress. Change in leadership and membership is good. The American people does not benefit from having career politicians.
I support not just term limits for Congress, but also maximum age limits for Congress. A maximum 2 elected terms in the U.S Senate and maximum 6 terms in the U.S House would be fair. 75 years old and then you're ineligible to seek re-election would be fair too.
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R:250 | Mr. Politics ( 190.1725 points)
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Tue, November 12, 2024 01:55:05 AM UTC0:00
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There will be 13 new faces in the U.S Senate.
And now it looks like 14.
LSjustbloggin: There will be 13 new faces in the U.S Senate.
And now it looks like 14.
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I:11727 | LSjustbloggin ( 99.8770 points)
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Tue, November 12, 2024 04:37:17 AM UTC0:00
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Then who's the 14th new face
Then who's the 14th new face
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R:250 | Mr. Politics ( 190.1725 points)
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Tue, November 12, 2024 01:29:33 PM UTC0:00
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Then who's the 14th new face
Person who replaces Rubio.
LSjustbloggin: Then who's the 14th new face
Person who replaces Rubio.
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D:10973 | Patrick ( 6.5582 points)
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Wed, November 13, 2024 01:04:07 AM UTC0:00
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I support not just term limits for Congress, but also maximum age limits for Congress. A maximum 2 elected terms in the U.S Senate and maximum 6 terms in the U.S House would be fair. 75 years old and then you're ineligible to seek re-election would be fair too.
What else do you support all of us want to know
LSjustbloggin: I support not just term limits for Congress, but also maximum age limits for Congress. A maximum 2 elected terms in the U.S Senate and maximum 6 terms in the U.S House would be fair. 75 years old and then you're ineligible to seek re-election would be fair too.
What else do you support all of us want to know
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