Also interesting that Lasconi is a bit more socially liberal than Ciolacu. It seems she has softened her stance on LGBT rights since the falling out with her daughter over the issue a few years ago when she voted for the constitutional ban. Lasconi is now for civil unions and discrimination protections. Ciolacu is against both.

Beginning to think Lasconi may just squeak ahead of Georgescu here. Georgescu was a fresh(er) face and had a whirlwind behind his sails. He would have rallied the right behind him (it appeared, rather lustily) vs Ciolacu in the 2nd. There's still a lot of excitement behind him, but he's no longer the man on a white horse facing Ciolacu and the "ruling establishment." He now has to rumble, all alone, against Lasconi's party machinery, which will probably strengthen with new allies as the days pass - and it'll stick shift to 6th gear for her.

Candidate Cristian Terheș successfully managed to force a recount of the first round of the vote today https://hotnews.ro/anularea-alegerilor-prezidentiale-ccr-decizie-calin-georgescu-elena-lasconi-1847519 . The Court which accepted Terheș' request decided this based on evidence that Lasconi's "hand" was behind votes cast for Ludovic Orban in order to screw up the final tally rank of fledglings like Terheș, and that her USR illegally continued to campaign after the cut-off time, especially when soliciting the expatriate vote that went her way in the eleventh hour and sent her over the top. The recount result may just bring Ciolacu back from the dead.

CURS Survey released a "post first-round exit poll" today representing results from questionnaires answered by 24,629 people https://media.stiripesurse.ro/other/202412/media-173314304686356000.pdf and https://evz.ro/rasturnare-de-situatie-calin-georgescu-marele-favorit-pentru-cursa-finala.html - The results give Călin Georgescu 57.8% and Elena Lasconi 42.2%. This jibes with other polling giving the (double-digit) edge to Georgescu. Unless the Constitutional Court voids the first-round results (decision due today https://evz.ro/breaking-news-ccr-precizari-despre-prezidentiale-ce-s-a-decis.html ), or if Romanian's polling establishment revert to type (i.e., remain the worst in the business), this second round is Georgescu's to lose.

The RFK Jr/Georgescu comparisons are pretty striking. Former environment minister who doesn't believe in the moon landing and thinks that carbonated drinks have nanochips

Polls and betting markets are giving to Georgescu https://kalshi.com/events/politics/foreign-elections in spite of a seemingly frantic, all-hands-on-deck effort by all the major established parties, from the PSD to the PNL, who've swung solidly behind Lasconi.

Romania's ruling class has gone berzerk, coordinating domestic and international "mobilizations" against Georgescu https://www.bursa.ro/mobilizare-politica-contra-lui-calin-georgescu-07531455 This is a step beyond desperation - I call it contemptible and totally unhinged, and a historical blot.

@bojicat Wondering if your opinion has changed given everything that has come out subsequently.