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  US House Speaker
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > U.S. House of Representatives > Speaker of the House
OfficeSpeaker of the House
HonorificSpeaker - Abbr: Speaker
Type General Election - Requires Run-Off
Filing Deadline October 11, 2023 - 11:00am Central
Polls Open October 17, 2023 - 11:00am Central
Polls Close October 20, 2023 - 12:30pm Central
Term Start October 23, 2023 - 04:00pm
Term End October 23, 2023 - 12:00pm
ContributorBensq1
Last ModifiedRBH October 25, 2023 01:16pm
Data SourcesNo candidate met the vote threshold to be elected. Jordan's nomination was revoked by the Republican Caucus after the third round of voting.
Description Steve Scalise won the nomination but withdrew a day later before floor voting began, He was replaced by Jim Jordan who was the Republican Nominee for Speaker but Jordan was removed after he failed to win the speakership on the third ballot.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won01/06/2023
NameKevin McCarthy Votes216 (49.77%)
Term01/07/2023 - 10/03/2023 Margin4 (+0.92%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won10/25/2023
NameMike Johnson Votes220 (51.28%)
Term10/25/2023 - 01/03/2025 Margin11 (+2.56%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceUS House Speaker 10/25/2023
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
10/07/2023 10/20/2023
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
James "Jim" Jordan 6 ------
Leaning Call: James "Jim" Jordan (100.00%)
Weighted Call: James "Jim" Jordan (100.00%)

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Vote Threshold Not Met Rep. Hakeem Jeffries Committee Chair James "Jim" Jordan (W) Majority Leader Steve J. Scalise (W) Committee Chair Patrick T. McHenry (W) Rep. Lee M. Zeldin (W) Rep. Byron Donalds
PartyIndependent Democratic Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes 0 (0.00%) 210 (48.95%) 194 (45.22%) 8 (1.87%) 6 (1.40%) 4 (0.93%) 2 (0.47%)
Margin-210 (-48.95%) 0 (0.00%) -16 (-3.73%) -202 (-47.09%) -204 (-47.55%) -206 (-48.02%) -208 (-48.48%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 48.85% 0.00% 51.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Ballot Round 3 0 (0.00%) 210 (48.95%) 194 (45.22%) 8 (1.87%) 6 (1.40%) 4 (0.93%) 2 (0.47%)  
Ballot Round 2 0 (0.00%) 212 (48.96%) 199 (45.96%) 7 (1.62%) 0 (0.00%) 3 (0.69%) 1 (0.23%)  
Ballot Round 1 0 (0.00%) 212 (49.07%) 200 (46.30%) 7 (1.62%) 0 (0.00%) 3 (0.69%) 0 (0.00%)  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 10/11/2023 10/11/2023 10/13/2023 -- -- -- --
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (0 from 0 pollsters)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
NDP BigZuck08
LBR Old LW
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (W) Speaker Kevin McCarthy (W) Rep. Tom Emmer (W) Rep. Mike García (W) Committee Chair Bruce Westerman Abstaining (W) Speaker John A. Boehner (W) Committee Chair Tom Cole
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Nonpartisan Republican Republican
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes 2 (0.47%) 1 (0.23%) 1 (0.23%) 1 (0.23%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)
Margin-208 (-48.48%) -209 (-48.72%) -209 (-48.72%) -209 (-48.72%) -210 (-48.95%) -210 (-48.95%) -210 (-48.95%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Ballot Round 3 2 (0.47%) 1 (0.23%) 1 (0.23%) 1 (0.23%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)  
Ballot Round 2 5 (1.16%) 1 (0.23%) 1 (0.23%) 1 (0.23%) 0 (0.00%) 1 (0.23%) 0 (0.00%)  
Ballot Round 1 6 (1.39%) 1 (0.23%) 1 (0.23%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 1 (0.23%)  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date -- -- -- -- -- -- --
MATCHUP POLLS (0 from 0 pollsters)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
VIEW 3 MORE CANDIDATES

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Kevin Hern (R)
Oct 13, 2023

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DISCUSSION
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66
Previous Messages]
 
D:10358Charlotte KAP ( 183.6672 points)
x2
Tue, October 17, 2023 08:51:28 PM UTC0:00
I love this song

 
LIB:6149Campari_007 ( 1501.1602 points)
Wed, October 18, 2023 05:23:37 PM UTC0:00
LOL and he lost a vote already.

 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
x2
Wed, October 18, 2023 05:38:32 PM UTC0:00
Can we just skip to electing a GOP moderate with Dem support in exchange for the original spending targets agreed to by McCarthy, a vote on support for Ukraine and Israel and no motion to vacate based on a single member?

 
WmP:879Chronicler ( 84.4516 points)
Wed, October 18, 2023 06:02:21 PM UTC0:00
CNN says Jordan only received 199 on the second ballot.

 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
Wed, October 18, 2023 06:57:05 PM UTC0:00
WA Indy: Lol, a what? Does anyone not Freedom Caucus count as a GOP moderate now?

Pretty much. It's a relative thing to the rest of the caucus.

 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
Wed, October 18, 2023 08:39:12 PM UTC0:00
Speaker candidate Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) told moderate New York holdouts he would support doubling the state-and-local tax deduction cap to $20,000, according to California Republican Mike Garcia. - [Link]

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Wed, October 18, 2023 10:41:47 PM UTC0:00
FWIW From a CNN Reporter


 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
Thu, October 19, 2023 01:43:37 AM UTC0:00
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), who voted for Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) for speaker yesterday, then against him today, said in a statement that she has received “credible death threats.” - [Link]

 
For:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -154.3857 points)
Thu, October 19, 2023 02:14:25 AM UTC0:00
Is it too late to resurrect Henry Clay and make him Speaker again?

 
I:9665ThatAlabamaGuy ( 13.3250 points)
Thu, October 19, 2023 02:39:39 AM UTC0:00
No matter who the GOP puts up, it will never end in unity. Jordan might as well step aside now.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Thu, October 19, 2023 03:57:57 AM UTC0:00
Without a driver in the Republican Bus, Republican's are losing valuable time in trying to raise money to retain competitive seats. Its quite alarming that both candidate recruitment and fundraising is far behind where it should be in competitive and open seats.

Still time to catchup, but we are only 1 year away. While Republicans are fighting each other and plotting to challenge Republicans in safe seats, the competitive seats are cash starved and candidates starved in some cases. Two examples are CO-08 and PA-08. The dem incumbents are leading fundraising 10-1 in both these extremely competitive districts.

Love him or hate him, McCarthy was great at raising cash and getting it to candidates.

 
For:10038Luzerne County Historian ( -154.3857 points)
Thu, October 19, 2023 06:12:37 AM UTC0:00
It's fun watching the Whigs...er uh....Republicans implode.

 
W:11230Arthur ( 520.6107 points)
Thu, October 19, 2023 04:41:32 PM UTC0:00

 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
Thu, October 19, 2023 05:09:00 PM UTC0:00
Looks like they are going forward with empowering McHenry as Speaker Pro Tem, but there's opposition:


 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Thu, October 19, 2023 05:55:33 PM UTC0:00
If you are a conservative who opposed McCarthy and McHenry becomes acting Speaker or empowered as Speaker - than nothing was accomplished in removing McCarthy. In fact, if Democrats are the ones that give McHenry the votes for victory, all that was accomplished is giving a McCarthy ally and someone who is beholden to Democrats the leadership of the House of Representatives.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
x3
Thu, October 19, 2023 06:15:19 PM UTC0:00

 
WASH:8766Pennsylvanian ( 401.2364 points)
Thu, October 19, 2023 06:48:51 PM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: Love him or hate him, McCarthy was great at raising cash and getting it to candidates.

Which is why McCarthy had the good will within the conference to go 15 marathon ballots. Contrast with Jim Jordan's empty threats and feigned bombast. Here's a guy who likes to make a living tossing Molotov cocktails through open windows and little else and thinks that's enough to render him a power-dealing big shot. But, armed with the fact that a veritable man-child such as Matt Gaetz can spike the ball over the fence and cause all this just for the hell of it, who can blame him?

 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
Fri, October 20, 2023 04:21:23 PM UTC0:00
More defections away from Jordan with this vote.

 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
Fri, October 20, 2023 05:06:15 PM UTC0:00
They are now trying to oust McHenry as temporary speaker. What a clown show.


 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Fri, October 20, 2023 05:11:53 PM UTC0:00
JORDAN -- 194
JEFFRIES -- 210
MCHENRY -- 6
DONALDS -- 2
EMMER -- 1
ZELDIN -- 4
SCALISE -- 8
GARCIA -- 1
MCCARTHY -- 2
WESTERMAN -- 1

 
D:10973Patrick ( 6.5582 points)
Fri, October 20, 2023 06:16:24 PM UTC0:00
When does Gaetz start getting votes

 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
Fri, October 20, 2023 07:40:14 PM UTC0:00
Patrick: When does Gaetz start getting votes

When it's about his expulsion.

 
LIB:6149Campari_007 ( 1501.1602 points)
Sun, October 22, 2023 05:31:35 PM UTC0:00
A Question here. Should we allow people to change predictions on this because I don't think anyone foresaw Jordan withdrawing?

 
D:1RP ( 5618.8218 points)
Mon, October 23, 2023 02:13:02 PM UTC0:00
Campari_007: A Question here. Should we allow people to change predictions on this because I don't think anyone foresaw Jordan withdrawing?

Well, it depends on what this Race is supposed to represent. If it's the vote that already occurred with Jordan running, then no - and either Jeffries "won" or no one did.

If it's whoever eventually actually wins the Speakership, then that Race hasn't happened yet and the dates are incorrect. Adjusting the dates will allow changing predictions.

 
Joker:9757BrentinCO ( 9683.0742 points)
Mon, October 23, 2023 04:22:29 PM UTC0:00
My two cents, we record the three votes for Jordan and close the race with no winner.

And then open a new race for whoever is selected the R nominee for whenever that voting begins.

I think we have history recorded correctly in the other races. McCarthy was removed. Scalise was nominated and withdrew. And now with Jordan his nomination failed after three votes and his Party voted to reject his nomination.

Anyway....maybe we put it up to a vote.


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