Upthegrove made sufficient progress in yesterday's ballot drop, I expect him to pass Pederson today or tomorrow, as progressive Democrats tend to vote later. This is far from over.

Definitely not over, though his percentage was effectively flat (.02% up) from the initial drop rather than making gains. Pederson's share actually raised almost half a percent in comparison. I'd argue it's a mistake to rely upon late ballots trending one way. Seen them go both ways in my day.

I would love to know which counties are outstanding

If King is still outstanding and I'd assume it is since it's a large county Upthegrove may have enough to pass Pederson

I would love to know which counties are outstanding I think you'll find this link helpful for that: https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20240806/turnout.html

Upthegrove just got second place.

The Estimator is potentially off on this. I think we'll have a close one for second. we have 124,850 ballots left. Of those left 44,718 are in favorable Upthegrove areas or about 36%. Going to be a nailbiter.

Is there an auto recount requirement in Washington? This will likely be 0.25% diff between Upthegrove and Kuehl Pedersonm Automatic within 2,000 votes and half a percent.

One persons speculation on the remaining ballots (have to open show more). Will be a gap of ~ 500 votes between Upthegrove and Pederson https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1823159684414775748

Those 5000 Stevens ballots tomorrow at noon will be key in shaping the outcome. It's Pederson's second best county (38%) and Upthegrove's fourth worst (5%).

Beutler has been declared the winner of the first runoff spot.

Wouldn't it be so annoying for the MAGAs if they ousted her from her House seat only to have her elected as the only state-wide elected Republican? It would be her Obi-Wan moment.

Right now it depends entirely on who occupies slot 2. If it's Pederson odds are Beutler wins this if it's Upthegrove he'll win this.

Washington is a lot more a low-information voter's paradise (?) in this current time that I've taken to calling the "reactionary prick era" and having a D after your name is usually golden but this could be the rare exception. Forestry and fire protection will back JHB hard against Upthegrove because his plan is focused solely on conservation at the expense of the timber economy and managing forestland to mitigate wildfires. If they put money into attacking him on that it could be very effective.

Stevens counted most of their remaining ballots and had a sharp improvement for Pederson, improving her share from 38.17% to 39.75% while Upthegrove's share fell from 5.05% to 4.63%. The net gain there was 2,130 votes. Grays Harbor also counted and that was more of a soft trend where Pederson gained .08% and Upthegrove .33% but still netted 219 votes for SKP. Next drop is Douglas' 3,000 and King's 900 ballots at 4. Grant updates their 3,000 at 5 as Clallam, San Juan, and Skagit update for smaller numbers. Thurston updates 4,000 ballots at 6 along with a small number in Okanogan.

Douglas 513 vote net gain SKP (% fell .93 from earlier count, though) Grant 523 vote net gain SKP King 246 vote net gain DU Small counts: Clallam 2 vote net gain DU Okanogan 8 vote net gain SKP Pierce 17 vote net gain SKP Skagit 66 vote net gain SKP Snohomish 21 vote net gain SKP Thurston 77 vote net gain DU Still waiting on San Juan. She caught up 3,172 on the day but honestly that Douglas result not coming through stronger is going to make it tough to catch all the way up. Upthegrove probably nets some back tomorrow because Thurston will count more after only doing about 1000 today plus several favorable smaller counts.

8/14 San Juan +35 votes DU 8/15 Benton +202 SKP Cowlitz +47 SKP Grant +513 SKP Jefferson +144 DU King +80 DU Skagit +11 SKP Thurston +72 DU Pederson gained 442 since last update and that's got to be better than she was hoping for. Grant came through slightly better than expected and Thurston was not trending much different than before. Jefferson had both candidates end .08 lower than yesterday. Walla Walla remains the only county with a large outstanding amount (5,500) and will update tomorrow evening (Stevens has 1,500 and Thurston 1,000). If margins hold she'd catch up another ~750 votes from that but that still leaves 1,000 more to be gained elsewhere so I think it's fair to say she'll need a positive trend out of Walla Walla to hold out hope of closing the gap pre-recount.

It's looking like Upthegrove is going to hold on and get the 2nd spot just barely. We have 3680 votes left and half of those are in Stevens County which is one of Upthegrove's worst counties.

We'll see. This guy who's been tracking seems to think Pederson will win if you apply current margins...just barely...by 200 votes. https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1824605076230398223

Latest drop has Pederson trailing Upthegrove by less than 200 votes. Checking Ralphie's reamining link https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20240806/turnout.html Its says there are 1350 ballots to be counted. Ralphie any thoughts on what's left?

The most amount of votes that a county has as of now left to be counted is Benton, where Pederson leads by 4 points, with 377. King, where Upthegrove leads by a big margin comes in second with 300. Chelan, a Buetler county but one where Pederson comes in second, is in third with 225. Clallan, the only Van de Wage county (Pederson comes in second), is 4th with 100. All of this makes it seem like Pederson will get the second spot but at the same time we don't know who these remaining ballots are being cast for...I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

It's getting down to such small numbers it'll be hard to tell. Also worth mentioning that even those counties who have no ballots listed as outstanding may well have some in actuality and can only truly be considered done if it lists FINAL.

I'm hoping for a tie.

Flipped back, temporarily. King will almost assuredly tip it back to Upthegrove and Chelan being a JHB county and the only one left with at least a couple hundred probably not enough to balance.

All votes in. Upthegrove leads by 51, but guess there will be a recount.