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MT US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents
>
United States
>
Montana
>
Senate Class I
Office
Senate
Honorific
Senator - Abbr: Sen.
Type
General Election
Filing Deadline
---
Polls Open
November 05, 2024 - 08:00am Central
Polls Close
November 05, 2024 - 09:00pm Central
Term Start
January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Term End
January 03, 2031 - 12:00pm
Contributor
RP
Last Modified
RBH
November 27, 2024 10:34pm
Data Sources
[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
Party
Democratic
Won
11/06/2018
Name
Jon Tester
Votes
253,876 (50.33%)
Term
01/03/2019 - 01/03/2025
Margin
17,913 (+3.55%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jun 04, 2024
MT US Senate - R Primary
Tim P. Sheehy
R
190,012
Jun 04, 2024
MT US Senate - D Primary
Jon Tester
D
107,551
Jun 04, 2024
MT US Senate - G Primary
Michael Downey
G
1,089
LEANING PREDICTIONS
Detail
Leaning Graph
01/24/2023
11/05/2024
Candidate
Slight
Lean
Strong
Safe
Tim P. Sheehy
20
6
1
--
Jon Tester
5
--
--
--
Leaning Call: Tim P. Sheehy (87.50%)
Weighted Call: Tim P. Sheehy (96.03%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
01/30/2023
11/04/2024
Graph Poll MoE/Time
Remove Internal Polls
Remove Firm Bias
Graph Distance
Graph Falloff
Graph Days
Graph Day Offset
Ignore Pollsters:
American Pulse Research & Polling
AtlasIntel
Emerson College
Fabrizio Lee (R)
Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research
JL Partners
Montana State University Billings
Pharos Research Group
Political Company
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
RMG Research
Siena Research Institute
Survey USA
Torchlight Strategies
CANDIDATES
Photo
Name
Tim P. Sheehy
(I)
Chairman
Jon Tester
Sid Daoud
Robert Barb
Party
Republican
Democratic
Libertarian
Green
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes
319,682 (52.64%)
276,305 (45.50%)
7,272 (1.20%)
4,003 (0.66%)
Margin
0 (0.00%)
-43,377 (-7.14%)
-312,410 (-51.45%)
-315,679 (-51.98%)
Predict Avg.
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Cash On Hand
6/30 $3,242,081.50
6/30 $10,882,249.00
$--
$--
Website
[Campaign Site]
[Campaign Site]
[Campaign Site]
Entry Date
06/27/2023
02/22/2023
03/08/2024
08/21/2024
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (19 from 14 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg
47.78%
--
43.00%
--
3.78%
--
0.61%
--
AtlasIntel
11/03/24-11/04/24
49.80%
--
39.20%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Pharos Research Group
10/31/24-11/03/24
45.00%
--
49.00%
--
4.00%
--
0.00%
--
Emerson College
10/23/24-10/25/24
50.00%
2.0
46.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Montana State University Billings
09/30/24-10/16/24
43.00%
--
43.00%
--
4.00%
--
2.00%
--
Siena Research Institute
10/05/24-10/07/24
52.00%
--
44.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
RMG Research
09/12/24-09/19/24
50.00%
--
43.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!
W
Arthur
R
Tulsi Gabbard
🔗
D
Crimson90
D
Jason
BEER
WSNJ
R
Don Seifert
🔗
R
Susan Good Geise
🔗
NDP
BigZuck08
R
Daniel S. Hurwitz
🔗
R
Terry Vermeire
🔗
R
Mallerie Stromswold
🔗
R
Bob Brown
🔗
R
Marc Racicot
🔗
D
NCdem
DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Michael Downey (G)
Jun 04, 2024 - Aug 21, 2024
EVENTS
Start Date
End Date
Type
Title
Contributor
VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date
Candidate
Category
Ad Tone
Lng
Title
Run Time
Contributor
12/11/2023
Tim P. Sheehy
TVAd
Contrast
eng
Sheehey ad linking Tester to Biden
00:00:30
RP
11/07/2023
Jon Tester
TVAd
Biography
eng
Big Sandy
00:01:00
RP
BOOKS
Title
Purchase
Contributor
INFORMATION LINKS
NEWS
Date
Category
Headline
Article
Contributor
Sep 05, 2024 04:35pm
News
Tim Sheehy Was Recorded Using Racist Stereotypes About Native Americans
Article
Jason
Add Your 2¢
Agree
Disagree
Laugh
Groan
Troll
Befuddled
Work Complete
Prediction
[close]
DISCUSSION
[View All
18
Previous Messages]
W:11230
Arthur
( 520.6107 points)
Wed, November 6, 2024 11:28:49 AM UTC0:00
NYT called it for Sheehy. Tester is DONE!
NYT called it for Sheehy. Tester is DONE!
W:11230
