Poll Average Details- IA US President - R Caucus - 2024-01-15 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Donald J. Trump Donald J. TrumpNikki Haley Donald J. TrumpRon DeSantis Donald J. TrumpVivek Ramaswamy Donald J. TrumpChris Christie Donald J. TrumpRyan L. Binkley Donald J. TrumpAsa Hutchinson Donald J. Trump Others Donald J. Trump
Selzer & Co.1/12X 1.00000   48.0000 20.0000 16.0000 8.0000   1.0000 1.0000  
Morning Consult1/7X 0.91667   58.0000 15.0000 14.0000 9.0000        
Suffolk University1/6X 0.90000   54.0000 22.0000 13.0000 6.0000        
Emerson College12/17X 0.56667   50.0000 17.0000 15.0000 8.0000 4.0000      
Arc Insights11/14X 0.01667   44.0000 17.0000 17.0000 5.0000 3.0000   0.0000  
TOTAL 52.598039 18.666667 14.504902 7.725490 3.971429 1.000000 0.983607 0.000000