Poll Average Details- NH District 01 - 2022-11-08 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Karoline Leavitt	Christopher Pappas	Write-In
University of New Hampshire	11/6	X 1.00000		49.0000 - -2.2994 bias	50.0000 - 2.6652 bias
Saint Anselm College	10/28	X 0.85000		51.0000 - -1.4118 bias	45.0000 - 1.8450 bias
co/efficient	10/26	X 0.81667		44.0000 - 1.9160 bias	48.0000 - -1.7398 bias
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research	10/6	X 0.48333		47.0000 - 1.4212 bias	48.0000 - -0.7836 bias
Emerson College	9/15	X 0.13333		42.0000 - 0.4363 bias	47.0000 - 1.1507 bias
TOTAL				48.057749	47.003868	0.000000