Poll Average Details- NH District 1 - 2002-11-05 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Jeb E. Bradley Sean Dean	Martha Fuller Clark Martha Fuller Clark	Dan Belforti
University of New Hampshire	11/2	X 1.00000		49.0000 - -2.2994 bias	43.0000 - 2.6652 bias	2.0000 - 0.3437 bias
Research 2000	10/31	X 0.96667		50.0000 - 0.1379 bias	42.0000 - 1.1463 bias
American Research Group	10/30	X 0.95000		52.0000 - 0.7897 bias	42.0000 - -0.0037 bias
Franklin Pierce College	10/30	X 0.95000		43.0000 - -2.7720 bias	36.0000 - 4.2574 bias
Becker Institute, Inc.	10/23	X 0.83333		49.0000 - -1.3378 bias	41.0000 - 2.4670 bias
Lake Snell Perry & Associates (D)	9/26	X 0.38333		38.0000 - -2.4348 bias	40.0000 - 3.8851 bias	2.0000 - -0.2353 bias
TOTAL				48.999499	38.526014	1.816746