Poll Average Details- NI Assembly - First Preference Votes - 2022-05-05 16:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Sinn Féin Democratic Unionist Party Alliance Party of Northern Ireland Ulster Unionist Party Social Democratic and Labour Party Traditional Unionist Voice Green Party of Northern Ireland People Before Profit Alliance Others Progressive Unionist Party Northern Ireland Conservatives Socialist Party Workers' Party of Ireland Independents Aontú Cross-Community Labour Alternative Irish Republican Socialist Party
Social Market Research4/26X 1.00000   26.6000 - -1.4016 bias 18.2000 - -2.4293 bias 18.2000 - 5.3742 bias 12.1000 - 1.3919 bias 10.5000 - 1.8346 bias 5.7000 - -1.7068 bias 2.9000 - 1.1066 bias 2.1000 - 1.0450 bias                  
LucidTalk4/24X 0.96667   26.0000 - -0.5199 bias 20.0000 - -1.8809 bias 14.0000 - -0.0565 bias 14.0000 - 3.1395 bias 10.0000 - 1.6357 bias 9.0000 - -0.5886 bias 3.0000 - 0.4755 bias 2.0000 - 0.2671 bias                  
TOTAL 27.273307 21.244493 13.430720 10.783008 8.517402 8.479210 2.152754 1.388205 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000