Poll Average Details- Welsh Senedd - Constituency Vote - 2021-05-06 16:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Labour Party	Conservative Party	Plaid Cymru	Liberal Democrats	Reform UK	Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party	Green Party of England & Wales	UK Independence Party	Independents	Socialist Party of Great Britain	Voice of Gwynedd	Propel	Freedom Alliance	Gwlad - The Welsh Independence Party	No More Lockdowns
YouGov	5/4	X 1.00000		36.0000 - -2.2692 bias	29.0000 - -1.8535 bias	20.0000 - 0.3626 bias	3.0000 - 1.9532 bias	4.0000 - 1.8673 bias	2.0000 - 0.5435 bias	2.0000 - 1.4606 bias	1.0000 - 0.5460 bias
Opinium	4/19	X 0.75000		40.0000 - 3.0590 bias	30.0000 - -0.2916 bias	19.0000 - -0.4159 bias	4.0000 - -0.5596 bias
TOTAL				37.699971	30.612686	19.542471	2.552286	2.132700	1.456500	0.539400	0.454000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000