Poll Average Details- Welsh Senedd - Constituency Vote - 2021-05-06 16:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Labour Party Conservative Party Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Reform UK Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party Green Party of England & Wales UK Independence Party Independents Socialist Party of Great Britain Voice of Gwynedd Propel Freedom Alliance Gwlad - The Welsh Independence Party No More Lockdowns
YouGov5/4X 1.00000   36.0000 - -2.5726 bias 29.0000 - -1.9396 bias 20.0000 - 0.3645 bias 3.0000 - 2.0691 bias 4.0000 - 1.8239 bias 2.0000 - 0.5435 bias 2.0000 - 1.5078 bias 1.0000 - 0.5460 bias              
Opinium4/19X 0.75000   40.0000 - 2.6354 bias 30.0000 - -0.1449 bias 19.0000 - -0.3787 bias 4.0000 - -0.5097 bias                      
TOTAL 38.054886 30.599014 19.525443 2.464671 2.176100 1.456500 0.492200 0.454000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000