Poll Average Details- UK House of Commons - Popular Vote - 2024-07-04 16:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Labour Party Conservative Party Reform UK Liberal Democrats Green Party of England & Wales Scottish National Party Workers Party of Britain Plaid Cymru Alba Party Others Democratic Unionist Party Sinn Féin Social Democratic and Labour Party Ulster Unionist Party Alliance Party of Northern Ireland UK Independence Party Liberal Party Independents Socialist Labour Party English Democrats Official Monster Raving Loony Party Communist Party of Britain Christian Peoples Alliance Social Democratic Party Traditional Unionist Voice Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Yorkshire Party Aontú Scottish Family Party Heritage Party Rejoin EU
Deltapoll7/3X 1.00000   39.0000 - -0.0525 bias 22.0000 - 0.3780 bias 17.0000 - 3.2308 bias 10.0000 - 1.2517 bias 7.0000 - -0.3072 bias 2.0000 - -0.3267 bias                                                  
Opinium7/3X 1.00000   41.0000 - 3.0590 bias 21.0000 - -0.2916 bias 17.0000 - 2.8767 bias 11.0000 - -0.5596 bias 7.0000 - 0.5435 bias 2.0000 - 1.0629 bias   0.0000 - -0.4159 bias                                              
We Think7/3X 1.00000   41.0000 - 9.0769 bias 23.0000 - -2.2477 bias 15.0000 - -0.9521 bias 11.0000 - -0.1200 bias 7.0000 - -1.9635 bias 2.0000 - -0.4962 bias                                                  
Savanta7/3X 1.00000   39.0000 - 3.7575 bias 20.0000 - 0.6883 bias 17.0000 - 2.2631 bias 10.0000 - 0.3570 bias 5.0000 - 0.4589 bias 2.0000 - 1.2761 bias                                                  
PeoplePolling7/2X 0.98333   36.0000 - 4.2002 bias 16.0000 - -6.8623 bias 20.0000 - 6.7576 bias 10.0000 - -1.6923 bias 9.0000 - 2.7267 bias 4.0000 - 1.6942 bias                                                  
Norstat6/26X 0.88333   39.0000 - 5.3054 bias 23.0000 - -0.7044 bias 15.0000 - 0.7050 bias 12.0000 - -0.2187 bias 6.0000 - -0.7470 bias 4.0000 - 1.4836 bias   1.0000 - 0.3236 bias                                              
More in Common6/26X 0.88333   40.0000 - 7.9721 bias 23.0000 - 0.2539 bias 14.0000 - 0.2883 bias 11.0000 - -0.7603 bias 5.0000 - -1.5387 bias 3.0000 - 0.6086 bias   0.0000 - -0.6764 bias                                              
BMG Research6/26X 0.88333   42.0000 - 4.7230 bias 20.0000 - -1.8197 bias 16.0000 - 1.8666 bias 12.0000 - -2.1242 bias 6.0000 - -0.3893 bias 3.0000 - 0.1067 bias                                                  
Survation6/25X 0.86667   41.0000 - 1.7845 bias 18.0000 - -2.1499 bias 14.0000 - 0.8177 bias 12.0000 - 1.3462 bias 5.0000 - 0.5430 bias 2.0000 - 1.0711 bias   0.0000 - 0.2349 bias                                              
JL Partners6/24X 0.85000   41.0000 - 5.7209 bias 25.0000 - -0.2863 bias 15.0000 - 1.0742 bias 11.0000 - 0.3994 bias 5.0000 - 0.2060 bias 3.0000 - 0.4836 bias   0.0000 - -0.6764 bias                                              
Redfield & Wilton Strategies6/24X 0.85000   42.0000 - 6.5322 bias 18.0000 - -2.7762 bias 19.0000 - 0.3201 bias 12.0000 - 0.8327 bias 6.0000 - 0.1584 bias 3.0000 - 0.4539 bias 1.0000 - 0.2603 bias 0.0000 - -0.7221 bias 0.0000 - -0.0409 bias                                            
YouGov6/18X 0.75000   39.0000 - -2.2692 bias 22.0000 - -1.8535 bias 15.0000 - 1.8673 bias 12.0000 - 1.9532 bias 7.0000 - 1.4606 bias 3.0000 - -1.6797 bias   1.0000 - 0.3626 bias                                              
Techne6/13X 0.66667   43.0000 - 10.6353 bias 19.0000 - -4.1168 bias 16.0000 - 2.1998 bias 11.0000 - -0.8785 bias 6.0000 - -0.5615 bias 2.0000 - -0.4545 bias                                                  
Focaldata6/11X 0.63333   42.0000 - 9.1626 bias 24.0000 - 0.7854 bias 15.0000 - 1.0111 bias 9.0000 - -3.0350 bias 5.0000 - -1.6450 bias 3.0000 - 0.5449 bias                                                  
Lord Ashcroft Polls (Con)6/10X 0.61667   43.0000 - 3.1223 bias 21.0000 - -2.2368 bias 15.0000 - 1.8340 bias 7.0000 - 0.1667 bias 7.0000 - 0.6211 bias                                                    
TOTAL 35.630834 22.477402 14.300113 10.978158 6.247979 2.240932 0.739700 0.505326 0.040900 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000