Poll Average Details- AZ District 08 - Special Election - 2018-04-24 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Debbie Lesko Debbie Lesko	Hiral Vyas Tipirneni Kyle Martin
Emerson College	4/22	X 1.00000		49.0000 - 0.4363 bias	43.0000 - 1.1507 bias
Lake Research (D)	4/15	X 0.88333		44.0000 - -3.0428 bias	44.0000 - 4.9472 bias
OH Predictive Insights	4/11	X 0.81667		53.0000 - 0.9012 bias	43.0000 - -0.6090 bias
TOTAL				49.135380	41.466651