Poll Average Details- Schleswig-Holstein State Parliament - Popular Vote - 2012-05-06 18:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Christian Democratic Union Social Democratic Party Alliance '90/The Greens Pirate Party Germany Free Democratic Party South Schleswig Voters' Association The Left National Democratic Party of Germany Free Voters Family Party of Germany
GMS5/2X 1.00000   32.0000 - 1.1889 bias 33.0000 - 2.9115 bias 12.0000 - -1.3637 bias 8.0000 - -0.2003 bias 6.0000 - -1.1446 bias 4.0000 - -0.6018 bias 2.0000 - 0.2650 bias      
FGW4/27X 0.91667   31.0000 - -0.2697 bias 31.0000 - 2.9633 bias 12.5000 - 0.3875 bias 9.0000 - -0.0622 bias 7.0000 - -0.0470 bias 4.0000 - -0.6018 bias 2.5000 - 0.5673 bias      
Infratest Dimap4/26X 0.90000   30.0000 - -1.6675 bias 32.0000 - 3.6810 bias 13.0000 - 1.4558 bias 9.0000 - -1.1792 bias 6.0000 - 0.4427 bias 4.5000 - -0.1018 bias 2.5000 - 1.5998 bias      
Forsa3/5X 0.03333   35.0000 - 3.1926 bias 35.0000 - 2.1378 bias 13.0000 - 1.0173 bias 5.0000 - -0.9027 bias 2.0000 - -0.3258 bias 4.0000 - bias 3.0000 - 0.2086 bias      
TOTAL 31.240698 28.902216 12.370536 9.075563 6.555595 4.594761 1.547322 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000