Poll Average Details- ON Legislative Assembly - Popular Vote - 2011-10-06 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Ontario Liberal Party	Ontario Progressive Conservative Party	Ontario New Democratic Party	Green Party	Others	Communist Party	Libertarian Party	Confederation of Regions	Family Coalition Party	Freedom Party	Socialist Party of Ontario
Angus Reid	10/5	X 1.00000		37.0000 - 1.6021 bias	33.0000 - -9.2532 bias	26.0000 - 2.3125 bias	3.0000 - 1.2338 bias
Ekos Research Associates	10/4	X 0.98333		39.0000 - -3.0634 bias	29.7000 - -0.5893 bias	23.1000 - 1.8079 bias	6.6000 - 1.6785 bias
Abacus Data	10/4	X 0.98333		37.0000 - -4.9714 bias	34.0000 - -4.3036 bias	24.0000 - 7.1125 bias	4.0000 - 2.3226 bias
Ipsos-Reid	10/3	X 0.96667		41.0000 - -17.5077 bias	31.0000 - -23.5311 bias	25.0000 - -9.7062 bias	3.0000 - -1.7500 bias
Nanos Research	10/3	X 0.96667		40.1000 - 0.0404 bias	33.0000 - -1.8572 bias	23.2000 - 1.4413 bias	2.8000 - 0.7857 bias
Leger Marketing	9/29	X 0.90000		32.0000 - 1.7985 bias	34.0000 - -6.9491 bias	29.0000 - 0.1085 bias	5.0000 - 1.2886 bias
Environics	9/28	X 0.88333		35.0000 - -6.4640 bias	36.0000 - 2.0490 bias	25.0000 - 4.2708 bias	3.0000 - 1.6483 bias
Forum Research	9/23	X 0.80000		34.5100 - -1.9734 bias	34.2500 - 0.1942 bias	23.0000 - 1.5050 bias	5.0000 - 1.8584 bias
TOTAL				42.942709	40.581521	24.955264	3.128183	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000