Poll Average Details- ME - District 02 - 2012-11-06 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Mike Michaud Mike MichaudKevin Raye Kevin Raye
Kimball Political Consulting (R)10/30X 1.00000   50.0000 - -2.2504 bias 36.0000 - 3.8426 bias
Scientific Marketing & Analysis10/11X 0.68333  X 1/2 47.0000 - 1.3391 bias 40.0000 - 2.3556 bias
Normington, Petts & Associates (D)10/9X 0.65000  X 1/2 58.0000 - 4.4132 bias 33.0000 - -2.2342 bias
Pan Atlantic SMS9/28X 0.46667   52.0000 - 2.7898 bias 32.2000 - -2.7863 bias
Maine People's Resource Center9/17X 0.28333   55.9000 - 1.4728 bias 37.4000 - -1.8969 bias
Critical Insights9/16X 0.26667   54.0000 - 2.6037 bias 39.0000 - -1.3481 bias
TOTAL 51.189465 35.288537