Poll Average Details- NJ US Senate - 2006-11-07 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Robert "Bob" Menendez James D. Kelly, Jr.Thomas H. Kean, Jr. John P. GintyGreg Pason Edward "NJ Weedman" Forchion J.M. Carter Leonard T. "Len" Flynn Angela L. Lariscy Daryl Brooks N. Leonard Smith
OnPoint Polling and Research11/6X 1.00000   50.0000 - 1.5272 bias 41.0000 - 0.0144 bias              
Polimetrix11/5X 0.98333   53.0000 - 1.9452 bias 47.0000 - 1.6909 bias              
Quinnipiac University11/5X 0.98333   48.0000 - 1.4883 bias 43.0000 - -0.4574 bias              
Strategic Vision (R)11/4X 0.96667   49.0000 - -0.4798 bias 42.0000 - 1.1151 bias              
Gallup11/3X 0.95000   50.0000 - -2.6491 bias 40.0000 - 2.8840 bias              
Monmouth University11/3X 0.95000   45.0000 - 2.2180 bias 42.0000 - -1.1567 bias              
Mason-Dixon11/3X 0.95000   48.0000 - 0.4628 bias 41.0000 - 0.8197 bias              
Marist Institute11/3X 0.95000   50.0000 - 1.2095 bias 42.0000 - -0.7027 bias              
Rasmussen Reports11/1X 0.91667   48.0000 - 0.4222 bias 43.0000 - 1.5749 bias              
Reuters/Zogby10/31X 0.90000   49.0000 - 1.3729 bias 37.0000 - 0.1506 bias              
Eagleton Poll (Rutgers Univ.)10/31X 0.90000   46.0000 - 2.5840 bias 42.0000 - -2.6758 bias              
Fairleigh Dickinson University10/31X 0.90000   48.0000 - -0.3787 bias 38.0000 - 0.7776 bias              
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)10/29X 0.86667   51.0000 - 0.8606 bias 44.0000 - 0.4315 bias              
Zogby Interactive10/27X 0.83333   48.7000 - 0.0637 bias 42.8000 - 0.8374 bias              
New York Times10/25X 0.80000   40.0000 - 1.0972 bias 39.0000 - -0.5502 bias              
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)10/25X 0.80000   45.0000 - 4.9012 bias 36.0000 - -3.6705 bias              
Research 200010/25X 0.80000   48.0000 - 1.1463 bias 42.0000 - 0.1379 bias              
LA Times10/23X 0.76667   45.0000 - 1.0135 bias 41.0000 - 1.0817 bias              
the polling company™ (R)9/28X 0.35000   41.0000 - -0.1545 bias 41.0000 - 1.2390 bias              
TOTAL 46.859325 41.152111 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000