Poll Average Details- IL Governor - 2006-11-07 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Rod Blagojevich Judy Baar Topinka Rich Whitney Randall C. Stufflebeam Tim Nieukirk Mark R. McCoy Randy A. White Jack L. "Captain" Spani Angel L. Rivera Albert Sloan Mike Shorten Kevin J. Bogner Marvin J. Koch, Jr. Joseph F. Krug David Louis The Christ Sito Barry Newman William Miller
Rasmussen Reports11/1X 1.00000   44.0000 - 0.4222 bias 37.0000 - 1.5749 bias 14.0000 - 1.6192 bias                            
Survey USA11/1X 1.00000   45.0000 - 0.6087 bias 37.0000 - 0.3321 bias 14.0000 - 0.9606 bias                            
Mason-Dixon10/31X 0.98333   44.0000 - 0.4628 bias 40.0000 - 0.8197 bias 7.0000 - -0.3342 bias                            
Market Shares Corp10/29X 0.95000   44.0000 - -0.1166 bias 29.0000 - -0.3029 bias 13.0000 - 2.0038 bias                            
Zogby Interactive10/27X 0.91667   39.6000 - 0.0637 bias 33.0000 - 0.8374 bias 16.0000 - 5.7423 bias                            
Research 200010/26X 0.90000   47.0000 - 1.1463 bias 38.0000 - 0.1379 bias 11.0000 - 1.0935 bias                            
Richard Day Research10/22X 0.83333   48.0000 - 2.0170 bias 32.0000 - -2.3560 bias 12.0000 - 2.6848 bias                            
Glengariff Group10/15X 0.71667   39.0000 - 0.7307 bias 30.0000 - -0.8955 bias 9.0000 - 2.2372 bias                            
KRC Communications Research9/12X 0.16667   56.0000 - 3.6366 bias 26.0000 - -2.2539 bias 3.0000 - -2.4704 bias                            
TOTAL 43.483141 34.486216 10.033710 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000