Poll Average Details- IA US Senate - 2014-11-04 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Joni Ernst Joni ErnstBruce Braley Bruce BraleyRuth Smith Bob Quast Write-In Douglas Butzier Rick Stewart
Public Policy Polling11/3X 1.00000   48.0000 - -0.1911 bias 45.0000 - 1.3449 bias       1.0000 - 1.3665 bias 1.0000 - 1.9911 bias
Selzer & Co.10/31X 0.95000   51.0000 - -0.2736 bias 44.0000 - 1.0019 bias          
YouGov10/31X 0.95000   41.9000 - -0.0047 bias 42.9000 - 1.4663 bias          
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)10/30X 0.93333   49.0000 - 0.4315 bias 47.0000 - 0.8606 bias          
Rasmussen Reports10/30X 0.93333   48.0000 - 1.5749 bias 47.0000 - 0.4222 bias          
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News10/30X 0.93333   45.0000 - -0.7750 bias 44.0000 - 1.3689 bias          
Reuters/Ipsos10/29X 0.91667   45.0000 - 0.2867 bias 45.0000 - 3.1281 bias          
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)10/27X 0.88333  X 1/2 47.0000 - -2.4385 bias 47.0000 - 2.7785 bias          
Quinnipiac University10/27X 0.88333   49.0000 - -0.4574 bias 45.0000 - 1.4883 bias          
Loras College10/24X 0.83333   44.0000 - -1.2295 bias 45.0000 - 3.1867 bias          
Marist Institute10/22X 0.80000   49.0000 - -0.7027 bias 46.0000 - 1.2095 bias          
Monmouth University10/21X 0.78333   47.0000 - -1.1567 bias 46.0000 - 2.2180 bias          
Suffolk University10/14X 0.66667   47.0000 - -2.2107 bias 43.0000 - 1.6916 bias          
Morey Group (Lukens Company - R)10/7X 0.55000  X 1/2 37.9000 - -2.6061 bias 39.3000 - 4.7445 bias 0.2000 - -0.8844 bias 0.1000 - -0.3920 bias   0.1000 - -0.9184 bias 0.6000 - -0.8844 bias
Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R)10/3X 0.48333   50.0000 - 0.4956 bias 40.8000 - -0.5207 bias          
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)10/1X 0.45000  X 1/2 45.0000 - -1.6040 bias 44.0000 - 2.2050 bias          
Gravis Marketing9/30X 0.43333   50.0000 - -0.0717 bias 41.0000 - 1.6087 bias          
Harstad Strategic (D)9/25X 0.35000  X 1/2 42.0000 - -1.6529 bias 42.0000 - 3.5026 bias          
TOTAL 47.356161 42.938127 1.084400 0.492000 0.000000 -0.067796 -0.457169