Poll Average Details- MT Governor - 2012-11-06 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Rick Hill	Steve Bullock	Ronald S. Vandevender
Public Policy Polling	11/3	X 1.00000		48.0000 - -0.1911 bias	48.0000 - 1.3449 bias	2.0000 - 1.3665 bias
Mellman Group (D)	10/31	X 0.95000		40.0000 - -2.5182 bias	47.0000 - 3.6270 bias	3.0000 - 0.6331 bias
Mason-Dixon	10/31	X 0.95000		49.0000 - 0.8197 bias	46.0000 - 0.4628 bias	2.0000 - 0.2403 bias
Pharos Research Group	10/28	X 0.90000		44.4000 - 1.0763 bias	47.1000 - 1.6664 bias
Montana State University Billings	9/30	X 0.43333		40.3000 - -1.1286 bias	38.1000 - 0.9098 bias	1.5000 - 0.5258 bias
TOTAL				45.188598	44.439161	1.492777