Poll Average Details- AZ - District 05 - 2010-11-02 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal David Schweikert Harry E. Mitchell Nick Coons
Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates (D)10/14X 1.00000   45.0000 - -1.4053 bias 42.0000 - 3.5544 bias  
ccAdvertising (R)10/5X 0.85000   49.3500 - 4.4044 bias 33.2300 - -1.7909 bias  
Benenson Strategy Group (D)10/4X 0.83333   39.0000 - -1.2376 bias 46.0000 - 2.2630 bias  
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)9/27X 0.71667  X 1/2 40.0000 - -3.6705 bias 43.0000 - 4.9012 bias  
Harstad Strategic (D)9/16X 0.53333  X 1/2 44.0000 - -1.6529 bias 45.0000 - 3.5026 bias 6.0000 - 1.2121 bias
National Research Inc. (R)9/2X 0.30000   46.0000 - 3.5665 bias 38.0000 - -2.0758 bias  
Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R)8/29X 0.23333   50.0000 - 2.6146 bias 44.0000 - -0.2988 bias  
TOTAL 44.186483 39.497970 4.787900