Poll Average Details- UK Parliament - Crewe and Nantwich By-election - 2008-05-22 16:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Edward Timpson Tamsin Dunwoody-Kneafsey Elizabeth Shenton Nick "The Flying Brick" Delves Michael Henry Nattrass Gemma Garrett Robert Smith David Roberts Paul Thorogood Mark Walklate
Savanta5/18X 1.00000   48.0000 - 0.5266 bias 35.0000 - 3.4657 bias 12.0000 - 0.4282 bias              
ICM Research5/16X 0.96667   45.0000 - -0.2225 bias 37.0000 - 2.2922 bias 14.0000 - 3.5534 bias              
TOTAL 46.367025 33.094156 11.018736 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000