Poll Average Details- CA Governor Recall - Question 1 - 2003-10-07 22:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Yes	No
Field Poll	10/1	X 1.00000		57.0000 - 1.3653 bias	39.0000 - -1.3653 bias
Survey USA	9/30	X 0.98333		61.0000 - 6.7764 bias	39.0000 - -5.8017 bias
Los Angeles Times	9/29	X 0.96667		56.0000 - 0.4988 bias	42.0000 - -0.4988 bias
Gallup	9/28	X 0.95000		63.0000 - 8.3533 bias	35.0000 - -8.3533 bias
Baselice & Associates (R)	9/25	X 0.90000		53.0000 - 0.9929 bias	41.0000 - -0.9929 bias
Public Policy Institute	9/17	X 0.76667		53.0000 - 0.8152 bias	42.0000 - -0.8152 bias
J. Moore Methods	9/3	X 0.53333		55.0000 - 1.9016 bias	41.0000 - -1.9016 bias
Hart-Teeter Research	8/10	X 0.13333		59.0000 - 7.3759 bias	35.0000 - -7.3759 bias
USA Today/CNN/Gallup	8/10	X 0.13333		69.0000 - 17.2415 bias	26.0000 - -17.2415 bias
Time-CNN	8/9	X 0.11667		54.0000 - 5.2841 bias	35.0000 - -5.2841 bias
TOTAL				53.849129	42.617434