Poll Average Details- AR Secretary of State - 2006-11-07 18:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Charlie Daniels	Jim Lagrone Jim Lagrone	Ralph "Marty" Scully
Survey USA	11/5	X 1.00000		58.0000 - 0.6087 bias	34.0000 - 0.3321 bias
Opinion Research Associates Inc	10/26	X 0.83333		56.0000 - 4.3331 bias	27.0000 - -3.2528 bias
Arkansas State University	10/11	X 0.58333		38.7000 - 5.6185 bias	15.8000 - -4.6712 bias	1.4000 - -0.0309 bias
TOTAL				49.549486	29.304869	1.430900