Poll Average Details- NH US Senate - 2002-11-05 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal John Sununu John SununuJeanne Shaheen OthersKen Blevens Robert C. "Bob" Smith Write-In
Public Opinion Research11/3X 1.00000   45.5000 - -1.0426 bias 47.3000 - 2.9366 bias      
American Research Group11/3X 1.00000   48.0000 - 0.7897 bias 44.0000 - -0.0037 bias 1.0000 - 0.7110 bias    
University of New Hampshire11/2X 0.98333   46.0000 - -2.2994 bias 45.0000 - 2.6652 bias 4.0000 - 0.3437 bias    
Research 200010/31X 0.95000   46.0000 - 0.1379 bias 47.0000 - 1.1463 bias      
Franklin Pierce College10/30X 0.93333   40.0000 - -2.7720 bias 45.0000 - 4.2574 bias 2.0000 - -0.2014 bias    
Becker Institute, Inc.10/23X 0.81667   42.0000 - -1.3378 bias 48.0000 - 2.4670 bias 3.0000 - 0.9919 bias    
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)10/16X 0.70000   43.0000 - -1.6040 bias 45.0000 - 2.2050 bias      
Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (R)10/7X 0.55000   45.0000 - 2.5553 bias 45.0000 - -1.3383 bias      
Public Opinion Strategies (R)9/17X 0.21667   49.0000 - 2.6067 bias 40.0000 - -1.2826 bias      
Concord Monitor9/15X 0.18333   44.0000 - 2.6438 bias 43.0000 - 0.7851 bias      
TOTAL 45.317811 43.758487 2.030076 0.000000 0.000000