Poll Average Details- ON Legislative Assembly - Popular Vote - 2025-02-27 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Ontario Progressive Conservative Party	Ontario Liberal Party	Ontario New Democratic Party	Green Party	New Blue Party of Ontario	Libertarian Party	Independent	Freedom Party	None of the Above Party	Ontario Party	Northern Ontario Party
Léger	2/2	X 1.00000		47.0000 - -0.4314 bias	23.0000 - 2.1435 bias	17.0000 - 1.6715 bias	8.0000 - -0.9099 bias	2.0000 - 0.3150 bias
Pallas Data	2/2	X 1.00000		45.0000 - bias	28.0000 - bias	21.0000 - bias	5.0000 - bias
Mainstreet Research	2/1	X 0.98333		42.0000 - -1.6962 bias	29.0000 - -1.0502 bias	17.0000 - 0.3843 bias	6.0000 - 2.2081 bias
Innovative Research	1/31	X 0.96667		49.0000 - bias	22.0000 - 3.2124 bias	19.0000 - -1.3312 bias	9.0000 - 3.6768 bias
Abacus Data	1/26	X 0.88333		47.0000 - -4.3036 bias	24.0000 - -4.9714 bias	19.0000 - 7.1125 bias	7.0000 - 2.3226 bias
Liaison Strategies	1/23	X 0.83333		39.0000 - -9.5247 bias	33.0000 - 4.7194 bias	18.0000 - 4.2863 bias	5.0000 - 7.1246 bias
Campaign Research	1/16	X 0.71667	X 1/2	47.0000 - -8.9033 bias	23.0000 - 1.4470 bias	19.0000 - 1.5183 bias	7.0000 - bias
TOTAL				47.892688	25.468703	16.682780	4.589859	1.685000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000