Poll Average Details- MD US President - 2024-11-05 19:00:00
The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window -
the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0.
If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals
in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively
be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus).
[TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed.
Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.
| Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal |
Kamala Harris | Donald J. Trump | Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. | Ralph Jaffe | Write-In | Cornel West | Richard B. Mayers | John Cheng | William "Doc" Stodden | Paij Boring | Shiva Ayyadurai | Garry Hubbard | President R19 Boddie | Joseph "Joe" Kishore | Susan Buchser Lochocki | Chase Oliver | Benjamin Schwalb | Peter Sonski | Claudia De la Cruz | Andre’ Ramon McNeil | Brian Kienitz | Shondra Irving | Mary "Carol" Asher | Doug Jenkins | Sharon E. Harris | Jokie Beckett, Jr. | John R. Gibb, Jr. | Lester H. "Les" Waller | Michael Yost | Sethatina Newman | Jill Stein |
|---|
| Morning Consult | 11/1 | X 1.00000 |
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64.0000 - 3.2496 bias |
31.0000 - -1.6378 bias |
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| ActiVote | 10/30 | X 0.96667 |
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63.5000 - bias |
36.5000 - bias |
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| Chism Strategies (D) | 10/30 | X 0.96667 |
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56.0000 - -0.4530 bias |
33.0000 - 1.2351 bias |
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1.0000 - bias |
| University of Maryland | 10/22 | X 0.83333 |
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61.0000 - 4.6861 bias |
33.0000 - -6.6858 bias |
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| Emerson College | 10/21 | X 0.81667 |
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63.0000 - 1.1507 bias |
33.0000 - 0.4363 bias |
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| Braun Research | 9/28 | X 0.43333 |
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57.0000 - 3.9753 bias |
35.0000 - -4.2424 bias |
2.0000 - 0.0065 bias |
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1.0000 - 3.8074 bias |
| TOTAL |
59.226747 |
34.943010 |
1.993500 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
-0.178481 |