Poll Average Details- MT District 1 - 2024-11-05 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Ryan Zinke Mary Todd	Monica Tranel Monica Tranel	Dennis Hayes Ernie Noble
Pharos Research Group	11/3	X 1.00000		47.0000 - 1.0763 bias	46.0000 - 1.6664 bias
Impact Research	10/17	X 0.71667	X 1/2	46.0000 - -1.6076 bias	45.0000 - 2.7319 bias	4.0000 - 0.7449 bias
Guidant Polling and Strategy	10/16	X 0.70000		52.0000 - bias	44.0000 - bias
Montana State University Billings	10/16	X 0.70000		44.0000 - -1.1286 bias	37.0000 - 0.9098 bias	4.0000 - 0.5258 bias
Noble Predictive	9/14	X 0.16667		47.0000 - bias	43.0000 - bias
TOTAL				47.455194	41.951958	3.400017