Poll Average Details- MT US President - 2024-11-05 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Donald J. Trump Donald J. Trump	Kamala Harris Kamala Harris	Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.	Jill Stein No Preference	Chase Oliver	Shiva Ayyadurai
AtlasIntel	11/4	X 1.00000		57.3000 - 0.6043 bias	37.1000 - 0.6813 bias		1.9000 - bias	0.2000 - bias
Pharos Research Group	11/3	X 0.98333		51.0000 - 1.0763 bias	39.0000 - 1.6664 bias
Emerson College	10/25	X 0.83333		58.0000 - 0.4363 bias	39.0000 - 1.1507 bias
Montana State University Billings	10/16	X 0.68333		52.0000 - -1.1286 bias	34.0000 - 0.9098 bias	3.0000 - bias	1.0000 - 1.3888 bias	2.0000 - 0.5258 bias
Siena Research Institute	10/7	X 0.53333		57.0000 - -0.2762 bias	40.0000 - 0.8995 bias
RMG Research	9/19	X 0.23333		59.0000 - -1.9223 bias	38.0000 - 3.3133 bias
TOTAL				55.036908	36.616396	3.000000	0.970883	0.717250	0.000000