Poll Average Details- VA US Senate - 2024-11-05 18:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Tim Kaine	Hung Cao Hung Cao	Write-In
AtlasIntel	11/4	X 1.00000		52.6000 - 0.6813 bias	44.0000 - 0.6043 bias
Research Co.	11/3	X 0.98333		53.0000 - 2.9639 bias	41.0000 - -0.8902 bias
Chism Strategies (D)	10/30	X 0.91667		46.0000 - -0.4530 bias	45.0000 - 1.2351 bias
Roanoke College	10/29	X 0.90000		51.0000 - -0.8388 bias	40.0000 - 0.3736 bias
Cygnal (R)	10/29	X 0.90000		52.0000 - 0.2032 bias	42.0000 - 0.0406 bias
ActiVote	10/28	X 0.88333		54.7000 - bias	45.3000 - bias
Rasmussen Reports	10/25	X 0.83333		50.0000 - 0.4222 bias	39.0000 - 1.5749 bias
George Mason University Schar School	10/23	X 0.80000		54.0000 - 0.3784 bias	41.0000 - -0.6763 bias
Christopher Newport University	10/4	X 0.48333		55.0000 - 0.8749 bias	35.0000 - -0.8496 bias
Emerson College	9/24	X 0.31667		51.0000 - 1.1507 bias	41.0000 - 0.4363 bias
University of Mary Washington	9/9	X 0.06667		49.0000 - -0.7427 bias	43.0000 - -0.3589 bias
TOTAL				51.311446	41.534780	0.000000